KRISTEN WELKER:
This Sunday: Campus terror. At least two students are dead and nine wounded after a gunman opened fire in a classroom on the Brown University campus in Providence, Rhode Island.
CHRISTINA H. PAXSON:
Everybody is reeling, and we have a lot of recovery ahead of us.
KRISTEN WELKER:
After a manhunt overnight, the suspect now in custody.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Plus: Money matters. President Trump defends his record on the economy.
PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
You don’t need 37 dolls for your daughter. Two or three is nice.
SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER:
Does he understand that these tariffs are raising prices?
KRISTEN WELKER:
As worries grow about the cost of health insurance.
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
I have not heard a solution from the other side of the aisle about how to fix that.
SEN. JOHN THUNE:
Democrats’ so-called “plan” is a three-year extension of the status quo.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Steve Kornacki reveals the results of a brand-new poll. And: Rising threats. Three Americans killed in an attack in Syria and three others wounded.
PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
This was an ISIS attack on us and Syria.
KRISTEN WELKER:
As the pressure campaign against Venezuela escalates, with the U.S. military seizing an oil tanker, is the Trump administration seeking regime change? My guests this morning: Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. Joining me for insight and analysis are: Amna Nawaz, co-anchor of PBS NewsHour; Jonathan Martin of POLITICO; Neera Tanden, president of the Center for American Progress; and Lanhee Chen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution. Welcome to Sunday, it’s Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history, this is Meet the Press with Kristen Welker.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Good Sunday morning. After gun violence terrorizes another American school community, a suspect now in custody – the gunman who opened fire on the campus of Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island Saturday killing two students in a classroom and leaving nine others wounded. The shooter sending the campus and much of the surrounding area into lockdown. Authorities say it happened in an engineering building where students were taking exams ahead of their winter break. Overnight, officials released this video of the suspect. The president of Brown University with this message earlier this morning:
[BEGIN TAPE]
CHRISTINA H. PAXSON:
Everybody is reeling, and we have a lot of recovery ahead of us. So my main goal in the coming days and weeks and months, it will take a long time, is to bring people back together and help them feel safe and secure on campus.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
President Trump speaking out overnight.
[BEGIN TAPE]
PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
I've been fully briefed on the Brown University situation. What a terrible thing it is, and all we can do right now is pray for the victims and for those that were very badly hurt, it looks like. And we'll inform you later as to what's happening, but it's a shame, it's a shame. Just pray. Thank you very much.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
And joining me now is NBC News national law enforcement and intelligence correspondent, Tom Winter. Tom, what are we learning this morning about the suspect and the motive?
TOM WINTER:
Well, good morning, Kristen, yes. Law enforcement officials and multiple law enforcement officials in the Rhode Island area that we've spoken to say they believe that they have their person who is responsible for this, taken into custody in Rhode Island earlier this morning, we're told, outside of the Providence area where the shooting occurred. That individual that we're looking at there on screen apparently was able to make it into the school, not wearing the all black and perhaps a camouflage mask, as police described it last night, but was seen exiting that school where the shooting did occur. Right now police have not publicly identified the individual, though that could come later today. As far as charges at this point, they believe there's going to be state charges, although federal charges could be added later. Apparently, according to people that have been briefed on this investigation, there was a unique characteristic on this individual's gun that witnesses described to police. And then this morning when the arrest was made by the FBI, the suspect being turned over to Providence police, apparently that gun that matches that description was found on this person. That's just one of the pieces of evidence that they're looking at this morning and one of the things that they're examining. As far as potential motive here, obviously that's a big question. Right now we're told there's no indications of any sort of terrorism. But one avenue that they're different looking into is whether or not this particular individual had a specific ax to grind against that college, against that school that's located in that building – the engineering school or the building itself or the university at large. So that's definitely a big focus right now for investigators as they try and determine a motive. We could expect the charges to be filed as soon as later today or early tomorrow. That's where this investigation stands. Certainly questions in the law enforcement community according to a press conference last night, one official said, "This school was unlocked. The doors were unlocked because there were examinations that were going on. Kids were studying for final exams." And so there's some questions as to how individuals could come in or out of that building without any sort of particular security ID badge or some sort of a swipe. But that's all being looked at and being looked at by law enforcement. Obviously some questions for Brown University going forward as far as free access to this campus.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Undoubtedly a lot of questions. Just devastating this has happened yet again. Tom Winter, thank you so much for your reporting. We appreciate it.
TOM WINTER:
Thanks, Kristen.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And joining me now is Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia. Senator Warnock, welcome back to Meet the Press.
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
Good morning. Good to be here with you.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It is good to have you. It is a somber morning, Senator. I do want to start right there with that mass shooting on Brown University, claimed the life of two students. Senator, what is your message to the Brown University community, the broader community this morning?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
It is a somber morning indeed. And as I make my way to my own pulpit this morning, I’m going to say a special prayer for Brown University and for our nation. And I can tell you that as a pastor who has presided over many funerals, I don't think that there's any pain deeper than when nature is violently reversed and rather than children burying their parents, the parent has to bury the child. And so we pray prayers for these families. But we have to pray not only with our lips, but with our action. Any nation that tolerates this kind of violence year after year, decade after decade in random places, on our college and school campuses without doing all that we can to stop it is broken and in need of moral repair.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, we learned more horrific news that has happened overseas, a terror attack in Australia this morning at a Hanukkah celebration where at least 11 people are dead, according to authorities. Senator, what is your reaction to what appears to be a targeted antisemitic attack?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
We have to be very clear in condemning antisemitism. We're seeing a rise of antisemitism in our own country and across the globe. We have to condemn antisemitism. We have to condemn hatred and violence wherever it rears its ugly head. And I certainly will continue to do that. But there are those who are trying to stoke fear and hatred all across the globe, and what they're trying to do is convince us that our neighbors are our enemies. We have to reject that premise and recommit ourselves to building what Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. called the "beloved community." Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. If my neighbors are not safe, I'm not safe. They are not my enemy. We have to find common cause, connect in the deep places of our humanity and recognize that all of us are children of God.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, Senator, you of course do have a unique perspective on all of this because you are not just a senator, you are a pastor, as you just referenced. And in fact this week you gave a speech about how you believe faith can address some of these monumental challenges that this country is facing right now. And I want to play a part of it. This is where you're talking about your father who worked at a local steel yard during the week and then preached on Sunday. Let's take a listen.
[BEGIN TAPE]
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
But on Sunday morning, the junk man became the preacher man. And the man who lifted broken cars during the week lifted broken people and told them that they were God's somebody. My dad discovered strength in the broken places of power made perfect in weakness. I'm convinced that we can lift the broken even as we climb. We can heal sick bodies. We can heal the wounds that divide us. We can heal the land. We the people can do it, but we must do it together.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, how do you believe faith can address the deepening divides in our country especially at a moment like this when here we are mourning yet another mass shooting?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
Well, I am calling on all of us to keep the faith. And I know that that's difficult in a time like this. I don't say that in any kind of sugar-coated way. I understand the depth of the tragedy that we are facing even in this moment. But in this season of advent in my own faith tradition as a Christian, the words of the book of John, I think apply. It says that, "The light shines in the darkness. And the darkness overcometh it not." It's not that it isn't dark. It is dark. And there are forces at work in our world that are seeking to divide us. I think people are feeling a great deal of despair – there's a kind of spiritual heaviness in the land as people see a deepening and widening chasm between what they need from their government. Everything as basic as the safety of their children when they leave them on a college campus or on a school campus, all the way to health care. And as that chasm broadens, I think a kind of cynicism and despair sets in. And rather than people turning toward each other, they are tempted to turn on each other. And that creates just the kind of atmosphere where strong men emerge promising to solve all of our problems in one fell swoop. We have to resist that and recognize that the way to our own wholeness and well-being is to affirm the humanity of our neighbors.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, Senator, you take me to my next question because you're asking people to lean into faith. If you look at the data though, it shows that Americans are actually moving away from organized religion. So what is your message? And do you think Americans have an appetite for the type of faith-based solutions that you are proposing?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
Oh, I do. And, you know, I spend a lot of time especially with young people. And I think that there is a thirst and a deep interest in spirituality. What they are deeply suspicious of as you point out is organized religion. But there's a deep suspicion in American society at large with institutions in general. And churches, communities of faith, are not somehow immune to that. But what I am trying to call us to is the recognition that we have a common humanity. And that we are called to dig deep in that in this moment. I'm a pastor, obviously I think church does something. I think there's a danger in being isolated. And we're seeing this in this hyper-connected world in which people feel a deep sense of loneliness, a deep sense of loss. And I'm calling on us to dig deep into our various moral traditions. You know, I'm struck by the fact that of all the great faith religions, all the great faith traditions have some variation of what we call The Golden Rule: Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. You see it in Judaism. You see it Christianity, Islam, Hinduism. People of moral courage who practice no particular faith tradition affirm that. And I think in this moment in which there are forces at work, political forces at work trying to divide us, we have to double down on that commitment, check on our neighbors and recommit ourselves to a future that embraces all of our children.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, let me ask you about something else that you said in your speech. You said, "My faith is not a weapon. My faith is a bridge." You also say, quote, "Trumpism is a plague on the American conscience." How do you square those two ideas for people?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
Yes, as I point out, I think over the last several years, you know, the last 50 years and over the last year, we have seen a deepening divide between what people need from their government and what government is delivering. There's a kind of corruption, legalized bribery that attends our politics. You see it in the frustrating fight to get basic health care for ordinary citizens. Surely the wealthiest nation on the planet can afford to provide basic health care to its citizens. We suffer not from a poverty of resources, but a poverty of moral imagination. And I do think that Donald Trump, if he's better at something than anybody else, it's dividing us. And I think it is a distraction. And while we are distracted and divided, we have literally witnessed the largest transfer of wealth in American history from the bottom to the top. And people are fighting just seeing their costs for health care are doubling while Congress engages in everyday political games. They're seeing their utility costs go up, their grocery costs go up. And meanwhile the president is saying that he would rate this economy an A plus, plus, plus. The question from me is: who is he talking about? Clearly his friends, the well connected, the wealthy, certainly not the people that I see every day in Georgia.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, let's talk about health care. Because of course there's a big battle to extend the Obamacare subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the year. Do you think that Congress will be able to reach a deal to prevent subsidies from spiking? And if not, what will you say to your constituents, some 22 million people, who will see their premiums spike, Senator?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
I hope we can fix it. But quite frankly you ought to ask my Republican colleagues. They have the House. They have the Senate. They have the White House. We have given them 13 opportunities this year to stop these premiums from doubling. And every single time they turn their backs on their own constituents. And I really do mean their own constituents. Because it's people in red districts and red states who will be disproportionately impacted by these premiums that are set to double in a matter of weeks, triple for some people, quadruple for others. I'll tell you I was down in Evans County, Georgia – Claxton, Georgia, that provides us those wonderful fruitcakes at Christmas time. And those folks have literally seen their labor and delivery unit close in recent years because of these draconian cuts to health care. And if we don't do something they may very well lose their ICU. Can I tell you something? If you live in Claxton, Georgia, if you live in rural America, even if you have wealth and resources, and you're having a stroke, and there's no ICU within a reasonable distance because of these draconian cuts, you are impaired. Your life is in peril. You are in trouble. We can do better than this.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, quickly before I let you go. Georgia obviously shaping up to be one of the most closely watched Senate races with Senator Jon Ossoff defending his seat there. Can Democrats win back the Senate if you don't win Georgia?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
Oh, we're going to win Georgia. I have deep faith –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Do you have to win Georgia? Do Democrats have to win Georgia if you want to win back the Senate?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
Listen, I'm going to let the pundits do the punditry. Georgia has saved the nation before. Remember Jon Ossoff and I literally flipped the Senate. And Georgia's going to show up again. He's doing the work, fighting for health care, fighting for affordability. And we're going to win Georgia.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right, Senator Raphael Warnock, thank you very much for your time. We really appreciate it.
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
Great to be with you. Keep the faith.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Thank you, Senator. When we come back, Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky joins me next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back and joining me now is Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. Senator Paul, welcome back to Meet the Press.
SEN. RAND PAUL:
Good morning, thanks for having me.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Thank you so much for being here. I wish the news were better. We are having this conversation against the backdrop of yet another American tragedy, yet another mass shooting. What was your reaction to learning about the mass shooting at Brown University, and what do you want people to know about that today?
SEN. RAND PAUL:
You know, I was just at Brown a few weeks ago. I gave a speech at the political union, I got to meet, you know, several hundred of their students had a great interaction with them. So it kind of feels more personal because I hope it wasn't, you know, nobody deserves to die, but I hope it wasn't any of the students that I met or that I know. But yeah, just a tragedy and I think, you know, our prayers go out to the, you know, the families of those who were injured and those who were killed.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Absolutely. I do have to ask you about what is being called a terror attack overnight in Australia, targeting the Jewish community at a Hanukkah celebration. Senator, do you believe the United States needs to be on heightened alert in the wake of what happened in Australia?
SEN. RAND PAUL:
You know, I'm not sure. I don't know if I know enough about that attack yet, but it doesn't sound good. There does seem to be a rise of antisemitism around the world, in our country as well. And I think, really, it emphasizes that, you know, what our founders talked about. Our founders talked about that, you know, in order for a democracy to thrive, in order to have freedom, you had to have virtue. That really, you have to have this idea of self restraint. There has to be among the people an ability to obey the law and to know right from wrong. Think about it, I ask audiences this all the time. If there were no laws against stealing, who would steal? And of course, no one raises their hands. But I think that's pretty well true, that the vast majority of us don't steal because we think it's wrong, the vast majority of us don't kill because we think it's wrong. But when a society loses a sense of right and wrong, then there's great danger for everyone.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, and speaking of danger, I do have to ask you about this attack in Syria, two U.S. service members and one civilian interpreter were killed, three other troops wounded in an ambush by an ISIS gunman. The president is threatening, quote, "very serious retaliation" for the attack. You are a part of the Senate Foreign Relations committee. Do you support the president, the United States, retaliating what happened in Syria, Senator?
SEN. RAND PAUL:
Well, the soldiers who died are obviously heroes, fighting for their country. The purpose of whether or not they should be there or not is a big question. In the first Trump administration, Trump proposed removing those troops and the neocons around him, the traditional conservatives around him said, "Oh no, no, we won't let you." We actually passed a law trying to prevent him from removing troops from Syria. I was with the president in the first administration that a couple hundred troops in Syria are more of a tripwire than a strategic asset. I don't think they deter war. I think they basically, because Americans are targets and Jihadists around the world think they can get great glory and provoke terrorism by killing an American, that they become potential targets and tripwires to more interaction. Yes, the people who killed our soldiers should be punished. But really, we need to reassess whether or not we should have troops in Syria to begin with.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Hmm, okay. Let's talk about some domestic issues now, Senator, health care being really at the top of the list. Senate Republicans, including yourself, rejected Democrats' health care plan that would've extended Obamacare tax credits. This effectively means 22 million Americans could see their health insurance premiums skyrocket next year if there is no deal, including 100,000 Kentuckians, Senator. What do you say to your constituents who will likely pay a whole lot more for their health care and who feel as though there's blame to go around on everyone?
SEN. RAND PAUL:
I think the question we have to ask is what are premiums doing with or without the Obamacare subsidies? With the subsidies for the last 15 years, the curve of premiums has been up. Every time more subsidies are given, the premiums rise even faster. So we have a steep, steep curve of rising premiums that is because of the artificial demand. Part of it is because of the artificial demand. We also have to ask who these subsidies are going to. And if I ask my fellow Kentuckians whether someone making $100,000 a year should get $13,000 in subsidies for insurance, most of them are aghast. They think of someone who makes $100,000 a year as being well off. But it's not just that. If you make $200,000 a year, you get over $1,000 a year in subsidies. Why in any plan would somebody making $200,000 a year get money from the government? So none of the plans that have been proposed, other than mine, will bring down prices. My plan is this: let people in the individual market, the Obamacare market, which is about 4% of America, a small number of people, let them buy their insurance through Costco, Sam's Club, you know, Amazon. And what would happen is, once you get a large enough size, let's say you had a couple million people buy their insurance together, it'd be bigger than any corporation in America. But they'd no longer be stuck with an individual plan, they would get group insurance. They would probably have their negotiators sit down with the CEO of UnitedHealthcare and they would get a one-on-one meeting and they would get to demand good insurance at a good price. Right now, if you're a small entity, one, you know, small business with two to three workers, you have no leverage. It's take it or leave it. And take it or leave it, as in that rising, rising, rising premiums. So my plan, all it requires, doesn't require any money, just says legalize people to buy insurance across state lines, legalize people to have a co-op or a collective buy the insurance for them.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Just very quickly though, and I know you have your own plan, your fellow Republicans don't support your plan. Why not extend the Obamacare subsidies while you are working out a plan where there is broader agreement?
SEN. RAND PAUL:
Well, actually I do have quite a bit of support on the Republican side and I'm hoping to convince Democrats on this. President Trump supported it in his first administration, I just exchanged some text messages with the president in the last couple weeks. He still supports this. This is the one thing that could bring it down. Extending the subsidies keeps the prices up. And most Republicans I know, myself included, are not willing to give money to rich people or to rich insurance companies. It hasn't worked and somebody making $200,000 shouldn't get money from somebody making $50,000 a year. It's just a bad system. It was rotten from the beginning and here's the thing is if the subsidies expire, it's 15% of the subsidies. Eighty-five percent of the subsidies that have been there since 2010 continue on.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It still could impact some 22 million people. I do want to turn to Venezuela though. This is an issue where you've been quite outspoken. As you know, this week the administration seized an oil tanker off its coast with reports that more seizures could be coming. This comes of course as President Trump has been warning Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's days, quote, "could be numbered." Do you think the United States is on the verge of war with Venezuela, Senator?
SEN. RAND PAUL:
You know, one of the things I liked about Donald Trump when he ran for office was he was against a regime change in Iraq, against regime change in Libya. But I'm concerned about this. And I think there are people around him influencing him. I think his instincts still are against war. But I think he's become more interested in regime change in Venezuela because of the prodding of the Secretary of State and others who have aggressively wanted regime change. Regime change unfortunately doesn't always work out. Look, I have no like for Maduro. I wrote a book called “The Case Against Socialism” about how bad things are in Venezuela. So I wish and hope for better government down there. But you don't know what you get. It could be the drug cartels take over, could be that other generals take over. But the bottom line is, the people there need to fight for their liberty. And it really isn't the job of America. I mean, the president also said, "Well, be careful Colombia, you could be next." I mean, if we're going to go and topple regime after regime in South America, there's no amount of money that could be printed to pay for that. And I don't think that the lives should be lost without a vote by Congress and the people approving of this. That's what our constitution intended.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Okay. Final question on domestic policy, on redistricting. President Trump is threatening to primary, as you know, all of the Indiana lawmakers who voted against his redistricting plan, the new map that would have benefited Republicans. Do you support Republicans trying to redraw maps mid-decade?
SEN. RAND PAUL:
You know, it's this escalation on both sides. You know, both sides are doing it. And so is one side going to sit quietly and not do it? You can argue who started it. But I do think this, and this is on the negative aspect of both parties doing this. I think that it's going to lead to more civil tension and possibly more violence in our country. Because think about it, if 35% of Texas is Democrat, solidly Democrat, and they have zero representation, or like in my state, we're a very Republican state, but we have one Democrat area in Louisville and we have a Democrat congressman. We could carve up Louisville and get rid of that one congressman. But how does that make Democrats feel? I think it makes them feel like they're not represented. And so I don't know. I think it's bad, but it's really not one party or the other doing it. It's both parties have been doing it since the beginning of time. But in general, when it becomes so extreme, like if California has no Republican representatives after this is done, or has one left, I think that makes people so dissatisfied, they think, "Well, the electoral process isn't working anymore. Maybe we have to resort to other means." And I don't want that. And I think both parties it could happen to. But I think we need to be aware of and think about that before we do all of this.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, I have to follow up with you because what you're saying is very significant. You're saying that you are concerned redistricting could lead to more political violence?
SEN. RAND PAUL:
I'm concerned if there are no representatives, like no Republican representatives in California or no Democrats in Texas, that it will be so thoroughly one-sided that people will feel like their vote isn’t counting. And so I think it's a mistake. But I'm not saying it's a mistake of a Republicans, I'm saying it's a mistake of both parties. And I don't know exactly how we deescalate this because once, you know, Texas is done and changed five seats to be more Republican, California's going to do the same thing. And it's back and forth and back and forth. And how do you put the genie back in the box? I mean, how do you get back to detente? I mean, how do you do something better? But I think there is the potential that when people have no representation, that they feel disenfranchised, that it can lead, it might lead to violence in our country.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right, Senator Rand Paul, thank you so much. Covered a lot of ground this morning. We really appreciate your being here.
SEN. RAND PAUL:
Thank you.
KRISTEN WELKER:
When we come back, President Trump struggles on his affordability message. Will he reverse course? The panel is next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. The panel is here. Jonathan Martin, Politics Bureau Chief and Senior Political Columnist for POLITICO; Amna Nowaz, co-anchor of PBS NewsHour; Lanhee Chen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution; and Neera Tanden, president and CEO of the Center for American Progress. Thanks to all of you for being here, really appreciate it. I just spoke with both of our guests about the issue of health care, which Jonathan, falls into this broader bucket of affordability. Republicans have been very focused on President Trump's message on affordability. I want to play a little bit for you and get your reaction on the other side. Take a look.
[BEGIN TAPE]
PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
You can give up certain products. You can give up pencils. It's under the China policy, you know, every child can get 37 pencils. They only need one or two, you know? They don't need that many. But you always need steel. You don't need 37 dolls for your daughter. Two or three is nice. But you don't need 37 dolls. So we're doing things the right way.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
That message, based on my conversations, sending some concerns, shall we say, throughout the Republican Party. This idea that kids should have fewer pencils–
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Fewer dolls
KRISTEN WELKER:
– and dolls
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Well, yes. Well, fewer dolls for Christmas is not typically a political winner in my experience. Look, the party, his advisors, members of Congress, are pleading for an, "I feel your pain" president. And instead, they have an “A++++” president. Look, Donald Trump cannot do patience, let alone do modesty. All he knows, his only pitch, is sell. He wants to sell his presidency, himself, his brand and now America. But that's not the moment that we're in, because he can't tell people that it's 72 and sunny when it's 35 and overcast. And I think that's more where the economy is right now, and that goes to the heart of his challenge. It's a conundrum because the party needs Trump next year on the campaign trail, on the midterms. He has a bully pulpit, nobody else has that. But he's an unreliable surrogate. And so the party needs him out there, but if he's out there saying things like, "Only do a doll this year, you don't need three, America," he's not helping the cause, he's undermining his party's chances.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Amna, to that point, that speech in Pennsylvania was supposed to be a speech solely focused on the economy, affordability, and J-Mart's point is he was asked what he gives himself on the economy, he said, "A+++," five pluses, I believe. How do you see this playing out as a midterm message, and for Republicans, do they need to start distancing themselves from that?
AMNA NAWAZ:
Yeah, I mean, politically, as Jonathan says, the message is not meeting the moment. This is what Americans are feeling every day in their lives. Practically, there's no issue more important to Americans than the cost of living and inflation. So Republicans have to be on message if they want to win back the voters' trust on this. If you look at the facts, absolutely, food prices, the increase there has eased over time, but it's still going up. People felt that at Thanksgiving. Cost of goods coming from China have obviously been going up. Eighty percent of all toys that we import to America come from China. Christmas shopping is going to be more expensive. Energy prices going up, more systemic issues around housing and childcare. Our tariff rate, the average tariff rate right now is almost 17%. It's the highest it's been since the 1930s. And I was looking through a Goldman Sachs report from October, which is how I spend my Saturday nights, and it found that companies are actually only passing along half of the cost of those additional tariffs to consumers so far. That means it's only going to get worse in the months ahead.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, Lanhee, pick up on this point, because against all of that backdrop, here we have this debate over health care. Democrats fought for this during the government shutdown, the longest government shutdown in history. Republicans haven't offered a counterpoint to Obamacare despite the fact that they say, "We've got to toss it out and start all over again." Is that at the root of this problem?
LANHEE CHEN:
Well, I think the president is the one best positioned to put forward a plan. And I think he's the one who could unite the tribes. Look, there's a policy imperative and a political imperative. On the policy side, giving subsidies to people making, as Senator Paul said, hundreds of thousands of dollars a year is not going to bring down the cost of health care. Obamacare has not brought down the cost of health care in the long run. So Republicans have a policy imperative to put forward something. And the president's the guy who can do this, ultimately put forward a plan that can address these challenges. Politically, if he does not address this, the challenge of course is that the party in power traditionally loses about 30 seats in the House in a midterm election. You look back at the last five cycles, politically, it is going to come back and bite Republicans if they're not able to make some progress on this critical issue.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Neera, what do you think?
NEERA TANDEN:
I mean, I think this debate, and I actually thought Senator Rand Paul's point and Lanhee's point is a little bit of the problem for Republicans.
KRISTEN WELKER:
In what sense?
NEERA TANDEN:
Because, you know, when you're talking about the premium tax credits, there's 22 million people who actually have more affordable health care, they can now afford it when they couldn't before. Their health care has gone down because of Obamacare, because of the Affordable Care Act. And the truth is, the ideas that Republicans have even debated in the last week, Senator Cassidy put out a plan, does not have really unified support in both houses, but he put it forward. But even that plan actually raises costs. There's $10,000 deductibles, $7,500 deductibles. That's not affordable to Americans either. So I think this is part and parcel of the problem and challenge which is there is an easy answer here, but it's to extend the premium tax credits. It's the easiest vote. But because the Republicans have systematically opposed extending the Affordable Care Act, it's an ideological obstacle.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
And that still may actually be where this lands, especially if Trump just comes out and says, "I don't want to take the–
KRISTEN WELKER:
In the 11th hour.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
"I don't want to take the political hit. Let's just extend it for two years," or whatever, to buy time.
NEERA TANDEN:
He was there two weeks ago–
JONATHAN MARTIN:
–To buy time. But he's not conveying that message yet. And so on the Hill, they're left uncertain because they defer to him on everything and he's not offering any instructions because he's more focused on White House renovations.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Lanhee, do you think he does that?
LANHEE CHEN:
Well, I mean, ultimately that would solve the political challenge in part. It's not going to solve, as I was saying earlier, it doesn't address the policy question, which fundamentally is, health care costs continue to go up year after year. Families are feeling the squeeze. Now it's becoming a political issue.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Amna, I did have a senior administration official say to me, "Don't rule out the possibility of an 11th hour deal." It doesn't seem like one's emerging. But J-Mart makes a point. Anything's possible.
AMNA NAWAZ:
Not so far. And who knows, with this president, as Jonathan says, yes, lawmakers are kind of sort of standing by to see what they can do. Time is the enemy here. They have very few working days left in this Congress. You look ahead to January, there's going to be a government funding fight for both parties as well. Neera's absolutely right that yes, more people are able to access under Obamacare some kind of health plan. But those premiums have been going up, even before the subsidies were expiring. A third of people said that they skipped or postponed care because of the costs. They don't fill prescriptions. This is going to be continued to be felt in the new year.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right, guys, stick around. We have a lot more to discuss. When we come back though, first Steve Kornacki reveals the results of a brand new Decision Desk Poll with some warning signs for the GOP. That's next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back, NBC News Chief Data Analyst Steve Kornacki is here to break down the results of our latest NBC News Decision Desk poll. What have you got, Steve?
STEVE KORNACKI:
Yeah, Kristen. So towards the end of 2025, we know that politically a tough ending of the year for Republicans and for President Trump and certainly this NBC News Decision Desk poll showing the same thing, a 42% approval rating for Donald Trump. Now we know his approval rating has existed in a pretty narrow range the entire time both terms he's been in office. However, that is down three points from the start of the year. I think maybe more worryingly for Trump though here when you look at this approval rating, look inside his own party. Now overall, it's like close to a 90% approval rating with Republicans, but the intensity, how about this. The folks who say they don't just approve, they strongly approve. And you can see here, Republicans who call themselves, they say they identify with MAGA, the "Make America Great Again" movement, 70% of them strongly approve of Trump. Those who say, you know, more traditional Republican, 35% of them strongly approve of Trump. And Kristen, that's a change from the start of the year here. It was 78% strongly for MAGA, 38% for traditional Republicans at the start of the year.
KRISTEN WELKER:
So this is really one to watch, because historically the MAGA base has been unmovable.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Yeah, and one thing we should note on this too, Kristen, this is an online poll, this is looking at all adults –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Right.
STEVE KORNACKI:
– not just registered voters. So we want to see, when you're looking at other polls, too, is this something they're finding as well? But that's significant certainly if that's something you start seeing across the board. The other thing here, along these same lines, just look at the composition of the Republican Party. We asked Republicans, "Do you identify more with MAGA or with just the Republican Party itself?" Fifty-fifty right now. And again, start of the year, the balance was more on the MAGA side. So moving a little bit away from that potentially. But again, looking at that low approval rating for Donald Trump, what might go into it, we asked voters what matters most to you, 27%, it is the economy. Health care you see, by the way, 17%. When you're talking economy, overwhelmingly, it's the cost of living, it's inflation. And then look at this, you ask folks, "Are you better off or worse off versus a year ago?" It's 65-35 now. Kristen, that's basically exactly what it was when Trump came to office. So it's not like there's been a groundswell of people feeling differently over the course of the year. And then, you know, let's talk politics here. Which party, we asked voters, do you trust more when it comes to those prices? That's Democrats, blue, by six points. Health care costs, that's Democrats, blue, by 14 points. Think of those results we saw in New Jersey, in Virginia, certainly this could be an ingredient in that. Democratic hopes for next year, Republican fears for next year. And then on health care too, I did want to make sure we mentioned this, very important as this health care debate plays out, we asked folks overall their concern about health care costs. But are you satisfied with the coverage you have right now? Overwhelmingly, their answer is yes, 82% are very or somewhat satisfied with their existing coverage.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Significant findings heading into the midterms. Steve Kornacki, thank you so much for being here. When we come back, how strong is President Trump's hold on his party? More with the panel next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back, the panel is still with us. Amna, let me start with you and what happened in Indiana –
AMNA NAWAZ:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
– the fact that you had state senators – Republican state senators effectively rebuke President Trump, rebuke Vice President JD Vance and vote against their redistricting plan, this is really the first time we've seen Republicans stand up to Trump in this way. Is it a sign that he could be losing his grip on parts of the party?
AMNA NAWAZ:
Well, let's underscore here, Indiana's a red state, right?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yes.
AMNA NAWAZ:
We're not talking – we’re talking about a place the president has won very handily year over year. When we talk to state lawmakers there, Republican state lawmakers, they told us a few things mattered here. One, that they thought it was bad policy to do this kind of redistricting mid-decade, that they thought it was transactional, they didn't want to have to get into this every few years, according to the whims of the president. Two, that they felt their constituents didn't want it. There was very little support on the ground, even for a pre-vote rally that was held by Talking Points USA there. And then third – Turning Point, rather, USA. And the third point, we talked to one senator in particular who had heard a derogatory slur the president used. He himself has a daughter with disabilities, and he felt personally, "I don't want to get behind this." I think it's important to point out though, even that state party was divided. This was not a unified stance within Indiana Republicans. And that I think is indicative of a larger divide we've seen.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, it's really fascinating. J-Mart –
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
– I thought what Senator Paul said was really striking.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Yes.
KRISTEN WELKER:
He said, "I believe this tit for tat over redistricting, I believe it's going to lead to more civil tension and possibly violence."
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Yeah. Which really captures this sort of arms race nature of this, which is –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
– one party reaches for a political advantage, the other tries to match them. And before you know it, we're more polarized, more divided. People don't feel like they have a voice and they turn to extreme means because of that. Look, I was puzzled why the White House made this Indiana play such a public campaign. I think they raised the stakes by publicly threatening these lawmakers. If they had done this in private, Kristen, I don't think it would've been seen as such a kind of rebuke. But because it was such a public campaign, that was striking. Secondly, last month, the night of the Jersey and Virginia races, I wrote that the test the next few months – as to whether or not Trump was losing altitude – would be if some of these states start saying no, and start saying no to his ask of reapportionment. And that's precisely what has happened. Politicians watch elections, and they saw what happened last month in the two governors races in Indiana. And they said, "Well, maybe he doesn't have the kind of juice that he had six months ago." And that's a – it’s a real tell.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Lanhee, do you agree with that analysis?
LANHEE CHEN:
It shows that there are limits to the president's influence for sure. But I think that the bigger issue of course is that you've always had this slight tension or sort of uneasy coalition. I think you have the MAGA elements of the Republican Party and then you have the more traditional element to the party. And I think that support for President Trump is still pretty significant. But the challenge is that at some point, this sort of fissure or this sort of division is going to get played out. And you saw it in the survey – the NBC News survey - that said that the identification of Republicans was 50% MAGA, 50% traditional Republican. That is, I think, more divided, that represents a more divided coalition than we've seen at any point during the Trump presidency. So that is going to be a significant story line to follow in the years to come as we think toward who the next leader of the Republican Party will be.
KRISTEN WELKER:
You know, Neera, it's so interesting. Susie Wiles, the president's chief of staff, said he's going to be out campaigning like it's 2024. Is that a good thing or a negative thing for Democrats, what do you think?
NEERA TANDEN:
I hope the president campaigns in every corner of the country, red state, blue state. I think that a fundamental challenge for the president, based on our earlier conversation is that his policies are raising costs for people. It's not just messaging for him, it's the tariffs. They are his tariffs, they are raising costs. On average, families are spending $1,200 more because of the tariffs. The Tax Foundation called this the largest tax increase in almost a hundred years. So it's his policies that are – that Democrats I think are going to campaign on, which is it's not just what he's saying and what he is saying is so counterproductive to Republicans interests, but it's his actions, which are contributing to rising costs for you and your families.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
But Democrats, I don't think, should want Trump to campaign in red states, because in a midterm --
LANHEE CHEN:
Energy.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
– that means he's going to bring out his voters. Look, two weeks ago there was --
NEERA TANDEN:
But look at Tennessee. That was a highly polarized race.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
I know.
NEERA TANDEN:
Lots of Republicans came out and the Democrat won, it came 12 points higher.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
That's why the margin went from, it was going to be three or four, and it became nine on election day because Republicans got engaged in the final days. You don't want that to happen in a lot of these red states. If Trump does get involved in red America, it's going to move his voters to the poll.
LANHEE CHEN:
Absolutely.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
The fundamental challenge that the GOP has is getting Trump voters out in non-Trump election years. And when they can pull off at least some of that, they're going to win in at least red America.
LANHEE CHEN:
President –
NEERA TANDEN:
But he also energizes Democrats to come out against --
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Of course he does. Of course he does
NEERA TANDEN:
– and purple states and Independents. That's the critical issue, is Independents have moved dramatically against the president --
JONATHAN MARTIN:
There's no question about it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Lanhee?
LANHEE CHEN:
And this is why it's going to be critical for the president and the Republican Party over the next six months to articulate specifically what is the plan on affordability. And I think that there are elements of this. The president has talked about it. The president's an all-or-nothing guy. He's going to be out there saying, "Here's my plan." And I think that ultimately is what's going to drive voters to vote Republican in the midterm election.
AMNA NAWAZ:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Amna, to that point, is it all about whether or not the president can stay on message?
AMNA NAWAZ:
Yes. Period. But also, even in places where he hasn't been on the ballot like in Tennessee –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah.
– in Miami where they just elected their first Democratic mayor.
KRISTEN WELKER:
In 30 years.
AMNA NAWAZ:
30 years. His policies resonate with people on the ground and have an impact whether he's there or not. And that will likely continue to be the case.
KRISTEN WELKER:
How big of a deal is Miami?
JONATHAN MARTIN:
I think it's significant because it shows that the swing to Trump last year was more about the moment of last year, the binary choice between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and the hangover of Biden and inflation than it was some significant realignment in American politics. I think it bodes poorly for the Republicans not just in South Florida, but other parts of the country, especially where you have a large Hispanic population. Talk about Texas earlier, they're trying to redraw the state lines in Texas, the House lines rather in Texas. The idea of maybe we can grab five seats. I don't know if you can get five seats because I think a lot of the Hispanic voters in Texas were temporary Trump voters, they're not new Republicans.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right, Neera? Final thought?
NEERA TANDEN:
I agree. I think the Texas gerrymandering really might actually come back to bite them.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right, okay guys. Thank you so much. Great conversation, really appreciate it. That is all for today. Thank you so much for watching. Have a very happy Hanukkah to those who celebrate. We will be back next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.
