If it’s THURSDAY … Judge Juan Merchan and family receive threats following Donald Trump’s arraignment … Vice President Kamala Harris tours a solar panel plant in Georgia and will deliver remarks at 1:50 p.m. ET … Tennessee state House votes on whether to expel three progressives who protested on the House floor over gun control … Nikki Haley releases her fundraising totals and rallies in South Carolina … Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis travels to Michigan … and Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks with NBC’s Andrea Mitchell after meeting with Taiwanese president.
But FIRST … Recent elections keep teaching Republicans the same lesson — abortion is a losing issue for them in the post-Roe era.
That was clear last year when voters in ruby red Kansas defeated a constitutional amendment that would have opened the door to more abortion restrictions. It was clear after the November midterms, when Democrats exceeded expectations and voters said abortion was a top priority.
And it was clear this week in Wisconsin, where liberal Judge Janet Protasiewicz soared to victory in a state Supreme Court race after hammering her conservative opponent, Dan Kelly, on abortion.
Once again, the issue appeared to push well-educated voters in the suburbs toward the Democratic Party. The trend over the last decade has been steady and clear: Compared to President Barack Obama’s victory in Wisconsin in 2012, Democratic statewide candidates (and now the liberal Protasiewicz) have seen the most improvement in the three highest-educated counties in the state (more on that in today’s Data Download).
So it’s no surprise that Democrats expect abortion to remain a top issue heading into 2024.
"It will continue to be a key argument because I think it is the best example of where the Republican Party is today, which is not anywhere near where the average Wisconsinite is,” said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Mike Tate, who previously ran the state party.
Some Republicans are speaking out that the status quo just isn’t working.
“We allowed the abortion issue to go unanswered,” Wisconsin Republican Party Executive Director Mark Jefferson told NBC News. “Our side hasn’t come up with a clear strategy on that issue.”
There’s a clear lack of consensus in the GOP on the issue, both in their message and their policy aims. And to many, abortion access is a moral fight, one where there isn’t political compromise to be had.
That makes for a choppy path forward.
Take what happened just a few weeks ago in Wisconsin. Amid the bruising Supreme Court race, with their party on defense on the key issue, Republicans sought to soften their state’s 19th Century abortion ban with some exceptions for rape and incest while adding new language about protecting the health of the mother.
It’s unclear whether those measures could have cushioned the blow for the party, because the bill was a non-starter for many Republicans -- as well as Democrats unwilling to engage on tweaks to the state’s abortion ban because they preferred sweeping changes.
Unless the GOP finds a path forward, they’re at risk of continuing to watch coin-flip races turn into double-digit losses.
Data Download: The number of the day is … 11%
That’s the percentage-point improvement for Democrats in Wisconsin between then-President Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election and liberal Judge Janet Protasiewicz’s victory on Tuesday in Dane County, the county in the state with the highest portion of college-educated adults.
It’s part of a trend worth noting in Wisconsin — the state’s three most-educated counties (Dane, Ozaukee and Waukesha) saw the largest vote-share improvement over that span. Every county with a college-educated adult share of at least 30% saw improvement for Democrats over this time period.
On the flip side, every Wisconsin county with a college-educated adult share under 24% saw the Democratic vote share decrease over that span, including five counties with a double-digit decline.
Other numbers to know...
27: The number of CEOs that have been asked by two senators to make sure their companies are complying with child labor laws.
478: The number of tornadoes that have been reported in the U.S. so far this year, doubling the average for this time of the year.
$6 billion: The value of a class action settlement that could lead to the cancellation of student loans for hundreds of thousands of borrowers, which colleges asked the Supreme Court to halt on Wednesday.
$10 million: The value of a fund Packers Sanitation Services Inc. committed to starting to “enhance the well-being of children in the communities we serve,” after the company was found to have more than 100 children working there illegally in dangerous jobs.
10: The number of bills activists say seek to restrict North Dakota’s LGBTQ community that advanced Tuesday in the state legislature.
At least 600: The number of children whose sexual abuse was covered up by the Catholic Church in Baltimore over 60 years, Maryland’s attorney general alleged in a report released Wednesday.
$144.5 million: The value of a tentative settlement agreement reached between the Justice Department and victims of a 2017 mass shooting at a church in Sutherland Springs, Texas.
$196 million: The amount of money going to grants announced on Wednesday to repair and replace leaking and aging pipes.
85: The number of people who die each year from carbon monoxide from portable generators. The Consumer Product Safety Commission is moving forward on new regulations to make generators safer, on the heels of reporting by NBC News, ProPublica and The Texas Tribune.
Headline of the day
Eyes on 2024: Fundraising feuds
Fundraising reports for the first three months of the year won’t be filed until April 15, but that hasn’t stopped campaigns from releasing their totals as early shows of strength.
On Wednesday former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley announced that she raised $11 million in the first six weeks of her presidential campaign. Haley’s team noted that was more than former President Donald Trump raised in the first stretch of the campaign last year (although Trump had been raising big money to his joint fundraising committee ever since he left office).
The fundraising reports filed later this month will only show a portion of the amount Trump (and others) raised after news of his indictment broke on March 30, since the quarter ended on March 31. But the news has apparently boosted Trump’s campaign coffers. NBC News’ Dasha Burns reported on Wednesday that the Trump campaign said it has raised $12 million since his indictment became public.
Trump’s campaign is also reportedly trying to court Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ donors, sending a memo to DeSantis’ donors earlier this week telling them “now is the time” to support Trump, Politico reports.
The latest fundraising quarter will also provide clues about potential candidates’ fundraising strength as they raise money for affiliated groups. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, for example, raised nearly $2.8 million for the Spirit of Virginia PAC and its non-profit arm over the span of 30 days, according to a press release from the group.
In other campaign news…
Trump talk: Trump urged Republicans in Congress to “defund the DOJ and FBI until they come to their senses,” following his arraignment on Tuesday.
Not appealing: Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is also weighing a presidential run, will not fight a judge’s ruling ordering him to testify in the special counsel’s investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, per NBC News’ Laura Jarrett.
Massie’s pick: DeSantis hasn’t jumped into the presidential race yet, but he picked up his second congressional endorsement on Wednesday with an endorsement from Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky.
Looks like he’s running: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., an anti-vaccine activist and son of the late former senator, filed paperwork to run for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Cross-country: California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom traveled to Florida and criticized DeSantis and the state government’s education policies.
Live free to join another campaign: Former President Trump’s New Hampshire state campaign chair each of the last two cycles, state Sen. Fred Doucette, is joining Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential campaign, per a press release.
Taking sides: Fresh off of its endorsement in the West Virginia Senate race, the conservative Club for Growth took sides in the gubernatorial race, backing GOP Attorney General Patrick Morrissey. Club for Growth PAC president David McIntosh said in a press release that Club for Growth Action, along with Black Bear PAC “expect to spend upwards of well over $10 million to help ensure his victory.”
Casey at the bat: Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., is putting together a campaign team and planning fundraisers, the latest signs that he intends to run for re-election, per Politico.
Party time: North Carolina State Rep. Tricia Cotham announced Wednesday that she is leaving the Democratic Party to become a Republican, handing the GOP a veto-proof majority. She said the “modern-day Democratic Party has become unrecognizable to me,” adding, “If you don’t do exactly what the Democrats want you to do, they will try to bully you. They will try to cast you aside.”
It’s a family affair: Politico reports that Liz Whitmer Gereghty, Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s sister, is considering a House bid against GOP freshman Rep. Mike Lawler, who flipped his New York seat last cycle.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, signed a bill into law that repealed the state’s 1931 ban on abortions.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy and several other House lawmakers met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California on Wednesday.
In the defamation lawsuit filed by Dominion Voting Systems against Fox News, a judge said he would be inclined to force Fox executives Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch to testify live in a trial.
Republican governors in Idaho and Indiana signed bills into law on Wednesday that ban certain gender affirming care for minors.
ProPublica reports on the relationship between Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and a GOP megadonor who he’s gone on lavish vacations with over the years.
