Winnowing the GOP field won’t stop Trump, new poll finds

Happening this Tuesday: Israel and Hamas battle deep in Gaza… Autoworker strike ends with deals for higher pay, handingPresident Biden a win… Biden speaks on retirement security at 3:30 pm ET… Latest release from NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows that Trump skipping GOP debates doesn’t concern most Iowa Republicans… And the 2023 elections are just one week away.

But FIRST… With 76 days until the Iowa caucuses, there’s increasing talk that more GOP candidates will need to drop out of the 2024 Republican presidential race to stop Donald Trump. 

The one problem with that: Winnowing the field doesn’t necessarily keep Trump from 50%, according to our NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa. 

For starters, at 43% first-choice support from likely Republican caucusgoers (and with much of that support locked in), Trump is already close to 50% in a multi-candidate field. 

Next, say Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis drops out. Well, the poll finds that a plurality of his supporters — 41% -- pick Trump as their second-choice support, followed by Nikki Haley (at 27%), Vivek Ramaswamy (at 15%) and Sen. Tim Scott (at 6%). 

And while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s support is different than DeSantis’, even if she drops out, Trump gets a sliver of her voters as second choice — DeSantis (at 34%), Scott (19%), North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (at 14%) and then (Trump at 12%). 

Bottom line: It’s not impossible for Trump to lose in Iowa (it’s happened before); the former president has clear legal challenges; and we’ve seen too many surprises in American politics to discount any outcome. 

But Trump’s rivals dropping out of the 2024 contest — by itself — likely won’t do the trick.

Headline of the dayThe number of the day is … at least 24

That’s how many times U.S. targets in Iraq and Syria have been attacked since Oct. 17, NBC’s Courtney Kube and Mosheh Gains report.

U.S. officials do not report injuries to U.S. service members in the attacks, which primarily occur via drones and rockets. 

On Thursday, the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes on two Iranian-linked targets in Syria — a weapons storage area and an ammunition storage area. Following the U.S. attacks on these two targets, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called this conflict between Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria, “separate and distinct from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.”

Eyes on 2024: Why Trump’s decision to skip debate hasn’t hurt him

Former President Donald Trump’s decision to skip the GOP primary debates hasn’t hurt his standing in the race, and a new Iowa survey helps explain why. 

In the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, 57% of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers say it does not matter to them if Trump attends at least one debate before the caucuses on Jan. 15. That includes an overwhelming majority of Trump supporters.

For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between killed New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation spotlights stringent New York state laws that have long drawn criticism

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe debate over AI’s future rages on both coasts

FOR SUBSCRIBERSDecades-old march dispute reignites in Northern Ireland, threatening political crisis

Meanwhile, 42% likely GOP caucusgoers say Trump should participate in at least one debate before the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses, including 60% of those who are supporting a candidate other than Trump. 

Trump is planning to once again hold a counterprogramming event during next week’s debate on Nov. 8, which NBC News is hosting.

Other candidates are gearing up for the debate stage. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy told reporters in Iowa on Monday that he would attend the debate, noting he decided to do so “in light of knowing that the field would be thinned down,” an apparent reference to former Vice President Mike Pence’s decision to end his campaign, per NBC’s Alex Tabet. 

For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between killed New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation spotlights stringent New York state laws that have long drawn criticism

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe debate over AI’s future rages on both coasts

FOR SUBSCRIBERSDecades-old march dispute reignites in Northern Ireland, threatening political crisis

Ramaswamy also detailed his pre-debate rituals, per NBC’s Jillian Frankel, which include a workout and a meal he enjoys, like enchiladas. 

In other campaign news…

Mr. Write (In): President Joe Biden won’t be on the New Hampshire primary ballot since the state did not comply with the Democratic National Committee’s push to move the Granite State primary later in the calendar. But a group of Biden supporters are launching a campaign to encourage voters to write in the president’s name, per the Washington Post. 

Trump’s own age issue: The New York Times details how Trump “has had a string of unforced gaffes, garble and general disjointedness” in recent campaign events, even as he mocks Biden’s age. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis even said Trump has “lost the zip on his fastball” and that “it’s sad to see.”

Colorado court: A trial began Monday in a case related to Trump’s standing on the Colorado ballot, with plaintiffs arguing that Trump should not be allowed on the ballot due to his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot

Gearing up: The New Jersey Globe reports that Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, is expected to file to run for Senate “in the next few days.” 

Boebert’s challenge: The Associated Press delves into Colorado GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert’s re-election bid after winning a second term by a razor-thin margin last year. 

Say goodbye to the bike lapel pin: Oregon Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer won’t run for re-election, Politico reports, after nearly 30 years serving his district in Congress. 

Show Me a primary: St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell ended his Senate campaign on Monday, deciding instead to launch a primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Cori Bush, per the Associated Press. 

Congressman vs. Congressman: Due to Alabama’s redrawn congressional map, GOP Reps. Barry Moore and Jerry Carl are set to compete head-to-head in the Republican primary in the state’s 1st District, CNN reports.

What’s changed in Virginia? Ahead of Virginia’s legislative elections next week, competing forces show that a lot has changed since GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s election two years ago, but much remains the same, too.

ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world 

A Las Vegas man was charged in connection with one count of threatening a federal official after he left profane and anti-semitic voicemails at the office of Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev.

A man in Alabama was charged in connection with threats he made against District Attorney Fani Willis of Fulton County, Ga., who brought charges against Trump and others in an election interference case.

Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee announced plans to subpoena GOP donors Harlan Crow and Robin Arkley II, and judicial activist Leonard Leo as part of their investigation into Supreme Court ethics.