Happening this Monday: Israel says it’s reclaimed control of territory from Hamas fighters (but adds that fighters might still remain inside Israel)… Israeli death toll rises to more than 700 and counting… U.S. lawmakers reveal at least four Americans are among the dead… And Hamas attack on Israel bears hallmarks of Iranian involvement, former U.S. officials say.
But FIRST… In the blink of an eye this weekend, the political conversation changed from the House GOP’s speakership crisis, the eye-popping September jobs report, and Donald Trump’s multiple trials and commanding lead in the Republican presidential race — to the horrifying attack in Israel.
At least for now.
President Joe Biden issued a statement Saturday saying that the United States stands behind Israel. “In this moment of tragedy, I want to say to them and to the world and to terrorists everywhere that the United States stands with Israel. We will not ever fail to have their back,” he said.
Meanwhile, Republican presidential hopefuls criticized Biden over the attack, arguing — without evidence — that the $6 billion in oil revenue the administration unfroze in the prisoner-release deal with Iran was used to fund it.
“Sadly, American taxpayer dollars helped fund these attacks, which many reports are saying came from the Biden administration,” Trump said.
And here was former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley on “Meet the Press” yesterday: “I mean, let’s be honest with the American people and understand that Hamas knows and Iran knows they’re moving money around as we speak, because they know 6 billion is going to be released. That’s the reality.”
For the time being, the Hamas attack on Israel has elevated foreign policy, national security and intelligence gathering to the forefront of the 2024 presidential race.
“This is an enormous intelligence failure by the Israelis and the Americans,” Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and Middle East specialist, told NBC’s Peter Nicholas and Natasha Korecki. “I don’t see any reason to believe that either Washington or Jerusalem had any expectation this was coming.”
And it raises the foreign-policy credentials of President Biden, as well as his rivals like Trump (a former president) and Haley (the former U.N. ambassador).
As Biden said — and joked — earlier this year, per Nicholas and Korecki: “I’m going to say something outrageous. I think I know as much about American foreign policy as anybody living, including Dr. [Henry] Kissinger. That’s what I’ve done my whole life — for the last 270 years.”
Headline of the dayThe number of the day is … 50
The number of years that have passed since the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, when Israel was similarly caught by surprise in a coordinated offensive by its Arab neighboring countries..
“Not since 1973 has there been such a catastrophic intelligence failure in Israel,” one former CIA counterterrorism expert, Marc Polymeropoulous, told NBC’s Dan De Luce, Ken Dilanian and Courtney Kube.
U.S. officials also said that the timing of the Hamas attack could be related to the anniversary of the Arab-Israeli war, though other factors — including negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations — may have played a role, too, per NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell, Doha Madani, Mirna Alsharif and Anna Schecter.
Eyes on 2024: RKF Jr. expected to launch independent bid
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is expected to announce later on Monday that he is leaving the Democratic presidential primary and instead launching an independent campaign for the White House.
Kennedy’s expected decision comes as he’s found more popularity with Republicans, and as he’s found himself at odds with a Democratic Party that he believes is conspiring to derail his presidential run, NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald writes. And NBC’s Alex Tabet and Katherine Koretski report from the campaign trail that Kennedy’s supporters help explain his move to an independent bid, writing that his backers “tend to think more highly of Trump than Biden.”
Still, Dems are worried that more candidates on the ballot could throw a wrench into Biden’s re-election prospects. The New York Times reports that Biden’s allies are working to thwart third-party efforts, particularly one led by the group No Labels.
A recent national NBC News poll explains why they’re worried. The survey found that Trump pulls ahead of Biden by a few percentage points in a hypothetical matchup where unnamed candidates from the Green Party, the Libertarian Party and No Labels are also on the ballot.
In other campaign news…
Granite State battle: The Washington Post explores former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s recent rise in New Hampshire, noting that Trump’s rivals are refocusing on the early primary state.
Stepping up attacks: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is ramping up his attacks on Trump on the campaign trail, NBC’s Alec Hernández reports. And Never Back Down, a super PAC backing DeSantis, recently launched a TV ad that doesn’t mention Trump by name, but compares DeSantis to “one man,” per AdImpact.
Mark your calendars: The Iowa Democratic party announced Friday that its caucus will still be held in person on Jan. 15, but that the party will release the results on March 5, conceding the first-in-the-nation position, per NBC’s Emma Barnett. But New Hampshire is expected to buck the Democratic Party’s plan to push its primary back. New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley acknowledged at a Democratic National Committee meeting over the weekend that Biden is not likely to be on the primary ballot as a result.
Biden’s business: Biden’s support for unions “has unnerved some of his business supporters,” write NBC News’ Peter Nicholas and Peter Alexander. They report that some advisers “have directly urged Biden to state bluntly that he wants to help business succeed.”
Uphill battle: Mississippi’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Brandon Presley, is urging Black voters to turn out in historic numbers in November’s election, which could give him a leg up against GOP Gov. Tate Reeves. The New York Times reports that Presley is also making Medicaid expansion, a popular position among Mississippians that Reeves has failed to undertake, central to his campaign.
Confusion on the ballot: Ohio abortion rights groups are trying to avoid confusion among voters when it comes to November’s abortion ballot initiative, per NBC News’ Adam Edelman.
“Steep learning curve”: Michigan election officials have been struggling to implement citizen-led election reforms, including the implementation of early voting and permanent absentee voting, per NBC News’ Jane C. Timm.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., who is blocking military promotions over the Defense Department’s abortion travel policy, will not lift his blockade in light of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
As U.S. officials plot how to respond to the attack on Israel, NBC’s Julie Tsirkin reports that unelected Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry is “effectively powerless” on the matter.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted from the position last week, denies he plans to resign from Congress.
And a man who attended the Jan. 6 riot and smashed a Capitol window with an ax was sentenced to seven years in prison on Friday.
