Happening this Friday: President Biden and VP Harris speak on gun safety at 2:45 pm ET… House Republicans, unable to pass military funding bill, leave Washington for weekend as possible shutdown looms… Republican Dave McCormick enters PA-SEN race to challenge Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa… And “Meet the Press” to interview Chris Christie and Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., on Sunday.
But FIRST… Virginia’s upcoming legislative elections could provide some clues for 2024 — and not just about Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s future ambitions.
The state legislature is up for grabs in November, with Republicans defending a narrow majority in the House of Delegates, and Democrats defending a slim majority in the state Senate. And early voting starts this Friday.
Here are three state Senate races that can shed light on the battles playing out across the state — and potentially across the country next year:
District 16: GOP playing defense
In Henrico County outside of Richmond, GOP state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant is defending her seat, which Youngkin would have lost the district by about 6 points in 2021 if the new map had been in place, per estimates from the Virginia Public Access Project.
The race is an interesting test case for abortion messaging. Dunnavant, an OB-GYN, recently launched a TV ad where she says directly into the camera, “I don’t support an abortion ban. Period.”
She elaborates on her campaign website: “Abortion should remain legal for up to 15 weeks. After 15 weeks, there should be reasonable exceptions for rape, incest, life of the mother, and in cases of severe fetal anomalies. Not a ban, but legislation that reflects compassionate common sense.”
But her opponent, Democratic state State Del. Schulyer VanValkenburg, also a high school teacher, has a recent ad claiming that Dunnavant’s position does amount to a “ban.”
District 24: Democrats playing defense
Outside of Norfolk, there’s a test for whether Democrats can counter GOP messaging on crime. Democratic state Sen. Monty Mason is defending his competitive seat, which Youngkin would have carried by 4 points in 2021, per VPAP. He’s facing Republican Danny Diggs, a retired sheriff.
A recent ad from Diggs accuses Mason of supporting “soft on crime” policies. Mason, meanwhile, focuses one of his recent spots on the threat of school shootings, and his support for expanding background checks.
District 31: Open seat battle
Not far from the nation’s capital, an open seat that Youngkin would have barely won in 2021, is home to one of the most expensive contests in the state.
Democrat Russet Perry, a prosecutor and former CIA officer, is also leaning into the issue of abortion, using her first TV ad to tie her GOP opponent, Juan Pablo Segura, to “MAGA Republicans” who want to ban abortion.
Segura, an entrepreneur who founded a maternal health care business and a doughnut business, recently told the Associated Press he supports a 15-week ban. He’s focused some of his recent ads on crime and education.
Notice some themes here? Democrats are leaning in on abortion; Republicans are stressing crime and other issues. Both parties deployed similar strategies in the 2022 midterms, when Democrats exceeded expectations.
Since then, have Republicans found an answer to Democrats’ abortion attacks by emphasizing 15-week bans? Have Democrats been able to counter GOP attacks on crime?
Stay tuned.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 2
That’s the number of Republican House lawmakers who say they’re willing to work with Democrats to avert a government shutdown next week.
NBC News’ Sahil Kapur and Rebecca Kaplan report that Reps. Marc Molinaro and Mike Lawler, two first-term members from battleground districts in New York, said they would unite with Democrats to force a vote on funding the government without the backing of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy if House Republicans don’t pass a continuing resolution to fund the government on a short-term basis by Sept. 30.
However, at least five House Republicans would have to join with Democrats for this strategy (requiring the use of what’s called a discharge petition) to succeed. So far, only Molinaro and Lawler have shown a willingness to go down this path, at least in public.
Other numbers to know
58%: The portion of Americans who support the ongoing United Auto Workers strike against Ford, GM and Stellantis, per a Reuters/Ipsos poll. A similar share say they support Hollywood writers in their strike.
$325 million: The value of a new military aid package for Ukraine that the Biden administration announced on Thursday while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Washington.
55%: The portion of time that F-35 fighter jets were found to be “mission capable,” a government watchdog group said, days after one crashed in South Carolina.
5: The number of Bulgarian nationals who will be charged in Britain, accused of spying for Russia.
17: The number of authors, including John Grisham, Jodi Picoult and George R.R. Martin, who are suing ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence chatbot, for copyright infringement.
70 years: The length of Rupert Murdoch’s career, which his son highlighted after Fox Corp. announced that Murdoch would step down from his role leading the company in November.
Up to 10 years: How long women could now face in prison for violating Iran’s strict headscarf laws.
At least twice: How many times Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas attended donor events for the conservative Koch network, a political organization founded by billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, ProPublica reports.
Eyes on 2024: Dave McCormick jumps back in
Less than a year and a half since he lost a competitive Republican Senate primary to celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick is back.
On Thursday night in Pittsburgh, he announced that he would once again mount a campaign to become Pennsylvania’s next senator.
McCormick will have to face a lot of the same challenges he did last time — Trump is still the de-facto leader of the Republican Party; McCormick still faces allegations about his loose ties to the state; and he’ll likely again face similar attacks to those he did in 2022 about his ties to China and about outsourcing American jobs.
Yet there are a few key differences between this election and his last bid that signal McCormick may have an easier bout in round two.
First, he seems to have cleared the Republican field and even secured the endorsement of former state Sen. Doug Mastriano, a Trump ally who was widely expected to challenge McCormick in the GOP primary. Second, he’s running in a presidential election year, which could boost him if the eventual Republican presidential nominee ends up winning Pennsylvania in the general election.
And third, he’s running in a state that’s now represented by two Democratic senators, rather than one senator of each party. Just like Democrats were in 2022, Pennsylvania Republicans this year are eager to flip a Senate seat back into their column (that said, Democrats point to their success last year, months after Roe v. Wade was overturned, as one reason why they expect to hold Casey’s seat).
In other campaign news…
Total and complete shutdown: Former President Donald Trump is calling on congressional Republicans to defund the prosecutions against him and his allies as part of any discussions about funding the government.
Friends like these: Former Vice President Mike Pence is amping up his criticism of Trump’s recent comments on abortion, accusing his former running mate of “walking away from the commitment to the right to life.”
A foreign policy debate: South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott criticized businessman Vivek Ramaswamy’s positions on Taiwan and Israel as “wrong,” arguing in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that “you cannot put an expiration date on our allies.”
What about us? North Dakota Republican Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson both remain short of qualifying for next week’s GOP debate and are bearing some frustration with it, NBC’s Emma Barnett reports.
Live free or die without an early primary debate: Fox News reports that the Republican National Committee is telling New Hampshire it would nix plans for a GOP primary debate in the state if it decides to move ahead of Iowa in the GOP presidential nominating calendar.
No, labels: A liberal donor network joins the chorus of those on the left warning a third-party presidential bid by No Labels would hurt President Joe Biden and favor the GOP, Politico reports.
Hail to the victors: Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig is planning to jump into the Michigan Senate race next month, Politico reports, joining a primary with former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers.
A Rand entrance: Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul stars in a new ad criticizing Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear over transgender issues, arguing he has “more in common with California liberals than Kentucky families.”
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
A watchdog group is raising concerns that poor oversight by the Department of Health and Human Services may have led to migrant children working in unsafe and illegal conditions, like in slaughterhouses, NBC News’ Julia Ainsley reports.
A former Trump attorney who supported the former president’s stolen election claims will be a witness for the prosecution in Georgia’s criminal case against Trump.
