Happening this Monday: Death toll in Gaza nears 20,000… Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., predicts on “Meet the Press” that Ukraine-immigration negotiations will extend into new year … President Biden marks somber family anniversary, per NBC’s Mike Memoli … Donald Trump courts voters — and controversy — on the campaign trail … And Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley stump in Iowa.
But FIRST … On Sunday, NBC News unveiled “The Deciders” — the seven counties across the country where the network will be devoting on-the-ground reporting to help explain the 2024 election.
And here are the counties we picked:
Maricopa County, Arizona: Home to Phoenix, it’s the biggest and swingiest county in battleground Arizona. Former President Donald Trump won it in 2016, 48% to 45%, while Joe Biden won it in 2020, 50% to 48%.
Miami-Dade County, Florida: With Latinos making up a majority of its residents, this county was once reliably Democratic — with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton winning it by more than 20 percentage points in 2012 and 2016. But Biden won it by just 7 points in 2020, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis won it by 11 points in his 2022 gubernatorial re-election.
Gwinnett County, Georgia: This diverse county (30% Black, 20% Latino, 14% Asian) is where the Democratic Party has had one of its biggest increases in its vote share from 2008 to 2020. In 2016, Clinton won the county by 6 points; in 2020, Biden won it by 18 — a significant reason how he was able to flip the state in that election.
Kent County, Michigan: Home to Grand Rapids, this once-reliable Republican county started breaking the Democrats’ way in the Trump era. Mitt Romney won it 53% to 45% in 2012; Trump won it by 3 points in 2016, 48% to 45%; but Biden carried it by 6 points in 2020, 52% to 46%.
Washoe County, Nevada: Representing Reno, it’s the swingiest county in Nevada, and it’s where Republicans have to win if they want to flip this battleground in 2024. Clinton carried it by 1 point in 2016, while Biden won it by 5 in 2020.
Erie County, Pennsylvania: As close to Buffalo and Cleveland as it is to Pittsburgh, this is the ultimate blue-collar swing county, NBC’s Steve Kornacki said on “Meet the Press” yesterday. Obama won it by 16 points in 2012; Trump carried it by 2 points in 2016; and Biden won it by 1 point in 2020.
Dane County, Wisconsin: Home to Madison and the University of Wisconsin, this county is all about the Democratic intensity in highly educated college towns. Biden netted 181,327 votes over Trump here in 2020 -- up from Clinton’s 146,422 in 2016. And that Dem gain helped the party flip battleground Wisconsin in ‘20, given that Biden won the state by just 20,000 votes.
Quotes of the day:
“Tired.” “Out of it.” “Status quo.” “Caring.” “Family.”
words Michigan voters invoked when NBC’s Kristen Welker asked how they’d describe President Joe Biden.
The number of the day is … 43
That’s the number of Republican Party county chairs in Iowa who expect Trump to win the caucuses there in January, out of the 50 who responded to questions from NBC News as part of a survey of all 99 GOP county chairs
Among the chairs who predict a Trump victory, many noted that support for Trump is dominating the Hawkeye State, even though he lags the other candidates in visits to the state this year.
Usually, that fact would hurt candidates, but for Trump it doesn’t seem to matter. But there are ways for the other candidates to gain momentum out of Iowa even if they don’t win, NBC’s Natasha Korecki, Alex Tabet, Matt Dixon and Emma Barnett report.
Still, the Iowa caucuses have been known to deliver surprise victories, and one county chair who supports DeSantis for the nomination told NBC News, “I think there’s more people that are undecided than we’re being led to believe.”
For more on the Iowa Republican leaders’ views of the presidential race, check out NBCNews.com.
Eyes on 2024: Trump courts voters — and controversy — on campaign trail
Trump hit the campaign trail over the weekend, sparking controversy along the way.
On Saturday, he traveled to New Hampshire, where he said immigrants coming from “all over the world” are “poisoning the blood of our country,” per NBC’s Ginger Gibson. He repeated the term again in a Truth Social post.
The Biden campaign responded by noting Adolf Hitler’s “Mein Kampf” also referenced “blood poisoning,” and said in a statement that Trump “channeled his role models as he parroted Adolf Hitler, praised Kim Jong Un, and quoted Vladimir Putin while running for president on a promise to rule as a dictator and threaten American democracy.”
On Sunday, Trump traveled to Nevada for a rally, where he said some of his so-called “fake electors” there were being treated “unfairly” on the eve of their arraignment.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to dominate the GOP primary, and Trump’s rivals haven’t matched the energy around the former president’s events in New Hampshire, NBC’s Jonathan Allen writes from Saturday’s rally.
Trump campaign senior adviser Susie Wiles told reporters in New Hampshire that the former president is hitting the campaign trail as he faces multiple court cases with trials beginning early next year, noting the looming court battles are a “scheduling nightmare,” per NBC’s Emma Barnett.
“We front-load as much as we can,” Wiles said.
In other campaign news …
Knives out in Iowa: Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley directly criticized DeSantis during her Iowa town hall, saying, “I have not talked negatively about anybody. But if you’ve got to lie to win, you don’t deserve to win,” per NBC’s Sarah Dean and Greg Hyatt. Also in Iowa, DeSantis criticized Trump, saying the former president would say the caucuses are “stolen” if Trump loses.
Biden navigates Hunter: While the White House has stressed that Biden does not plan to pardon his son Hunter, questions about a potential pardon persist, NBC’s Peter Nicholas and Jonathan Allen report. And NBC’s Mike Memoli writes that Biden is navigating his son’s indictments as he marks the anniversary of a tragic car accident.
Union drama: Memoli also writes that the International Association of Fire Fighters — the first union to endorse Biden’s 2020 run — “remains on the sidelines and faces internal divisions about whether to endorse at all in 2024.”
Backing down: GOP strategist Jeff Roe parted ways over the weekend with Never Back Down, a super PAC backing DeSantis that has been subject to internal tensions over the last few weeks. Roe’s departure came after The Washington Post published an extensive report detailing the group’s internal drama.
Candidate recruitment crunch time: Three months from the first Senate GOP primary, it’s a crucial time for Senate Republican campaign operatives to block problematic candidates in battleground states, Politico reports.
Hefty price tag: Political strategists estimate a special election to replace ousted GOP Rep. George Santos in New York could cost up to $20 million, CNBC reports.
Holding the reins: Some fake electors from 2020 who tried to overturn the presidential election in favor of Trump now hold roles overseeing elections in their states or localities, The Associated Press reports.
Clouds over the Sunshine State's GOP: The Florida GOP “voted to functionally strip all power from current Chairman Christian Ziegler, who is under criminal investigation for allegations of sexual assault, including rape,” writes NBC’s Matt Dixon. Ziegler has faced increasing calls to resign, and Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., joined those calls Friday, telling NBC’s Alex Tabet that “it’s time to move on and select a different leader.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
A jury ordered former Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani to pay $148 million to two Georgia election workers who faced racist and violent threats after he and other Trump attorneys falsely accused the workers of committing election fraud.
Leaders of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus met with the Biden administration over the weekend to express their concerns about a potential immigration deal the White House is hammering out in the Senate to pass alongside aid for Ukraine and Israel.
Of more than 500 bills targeting LGBTQ communities introduced in state legislatures this year, 75 have become law, NBC’s Jo Yurcaba reports.
