WASHINGTON — If it’s Monday ... New NBC News poll shows sky-high interest and polarization ahead of midterms. ... President Biden heads to the DNC headquarters to deliver remarks. ... Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., says the Jan. 6 committee won’t allow Trump to turn potential testimony into a “circus.” ... Gov. Ron DeSantis and Democratic challenger Charlie Crist face off in their first and only Florida Governor's debate. ... A Telemundo/LX News poll has DeSantis ahead among Florida Latinos. ... And GOP Super PAC pulls out of New Hampshire Senate.
But first: Our latest national NBC News poll finds that the midterm electorate looks a lot like what we saw play out in Virginia’s gubernatorial election a year ago.
Interest in the midterms is at an all-time high, but Republicans and Rural America are more enthusiastic than Democrats and Urban America are.
(What particularly stands out here is that high interest among all Black voters is just at 62% — 8 points lower than the average among all voters.)
Then there’s the geographic divide in congressional preference.
Urban voters prefer a Democratically-controlled Congress by 34 points (64%-30%), suburban voters prefer a GOP-controlled Congress by 4 points (48%-44%) and rural voters prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by a whopping 53 points (75%-22%).
“This is what Virginia looked like,” said NBC News co-pollster Bill McInturff, a Republican, referring to Glenn Youngkin’s overwhelming margins with rural Republicans that propelled his Virginia gubernatorial victory a year ago.
Yes, overall congressional preference in our poll remains close — 47% Dem, 46% GOP among registered voters; 48% GOP, 47% Dem among likely voters.
Yes, Democrats had closed the enthusiasm gap in the recent months.
Yes, rural voters make up a smaller share all of voters (about 15% in our poll).
And, yes, the fight for Senate control remains a Toss Up.
But that GOP/rural intensity, those GOP/rural margins and President Biden’s 45% job rating (it was 46% in the VA-GOV exit poll) sure look like what we saw a year ago.
Democrats are fired up. It’s just that Republicans are fired up a lot more.
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … 8 in 10
That’s the share of Democrats and Republicans in the latest NBC News poll who believe the political opposition poses a threat that, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it.
Eighty-one percent of Democrats say they believe the Republican Party’s agenda poses a threat that will destroy America.
An almost identical share of Republicans — 79% — believe the same of the Democratic Party’s agenda.
Other numbers to know:
20 million: About how many Americans have received their second Covid booster shot. Biden is expected to receive his booster on Tuesday, more than three months since he contracted the virus.
2.76 million: The number of migrant crossings at the southwest border for the 2022 fiscal year, a record-breaking amount per Customs and Border Protection data, NBC News’ Julia Ainsley reports.
9: The number of open House races where the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC had polling showing Democrats slightly ahead of Republicans, which it showed donors as part of a plea for more money, Politico reports.
$9.4 million: How much money in legal fees Stacey Abrams’ non-profit paid a law firm run in part by her friend and campaign chair, per Politico.
3: How many terms Xi Jinping will serve as leader of China after he secured another term Sunday, breaking the two-term tradition.
Midterm roundup: Senate GOP tells Bolduc to live free
It’s that time of year — when party organizations make tough choices as to which races are important enough to deserve their prized resources down the stretch.
On Friday, the triage came for New Hampshire’s Senate race, where the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund cut off Republican Don Bolduc and pulled its $5.6 million in remaining ad spending from the state to look elsewhere.
Steven Law, the group’s president, said in a statement the move was about “shifting resources to where they can be most effective to achieve our ultimate goal: winning the majority.”
While SLF funded an unsuccessful attempt to boost a more moderate challenger to Bolduc, the group kept hanging on in the state after he won the primary. The hope had been that the far-right Bolduc could still be competitive — but with other races trending in the GOP’s direction, it’s decided that money can go further elsewhere.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Alaska Senate: Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski told reporters she’d rank Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola first in November’s ranked-choice election.
Arizona Senate: Politico reports on whether Arizona’s Senate race is tightening in the final weeks as GOP outside groups filled the void left by the Senate Leadership Fund’s decision to spend elsewhere.
Colorado Senate: Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is endorsing Republican Senate hopeful Joe O’Dea, a move that former President Donald Trump criticized (O’Dea has said he’d campaign against Trump in 2024).
Georgia Senate: WANF in Atlanta reports the Georgia Secretary of State’s office is investigating a super PAC supporting Republican nominee Herschel Walker for giving out gas and grocery vouchers. State code prohibits gifts “for the purpose of registering as a voter, voting, or voting for a particular candidate,” but the group says it broke no laws because it gave out the gifts indiscriminately.
Nevada Senate: NBC News’ Natasha Korecki reports from Reno that Republican optimism is growing in the state’s Senate race, while Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto said about her opponent Adam Laxalt: “There should be consequences for people who undermine our democracy, who peddle the ‘Big Lie’ and conspiracy theories.”
Ohio Senate: Republican nominee J.D. Vance leads Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by 1% among registered voters in a new Marist Ohio poll, 46% to 45%, a lead that’s well within the poll’s margin of error. Meanwhile, the New York Times reports some of the state’s Ukrainian community plan to vote against Vance for his comments about the war with Russia.
Washington Senate: Washington Democratic Sen. Patty Murray and her GOP opponent, Tiffany Smiley, debated Sunday evening about issues like the economy and abortion.
Arizona Governor: Amid some speculation whether Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake has aspirations for a presidential ticket, Lake told ABC News “I’m going to serve eight years as governor of Arizona.”
Florida Governor: A new Telemundo/NBCLX poll of likely Florida Latino voters shows the group breaking for Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis over former Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist by a margin of 51% to 44%, with 56% approving of DeSantis’ job as governor. The two will debate Monday evening. Meanwhile, Crist’s campaign manager resigned last week after an arrest in a domestic violence case.
Pennsylvania-07: NBC10’s Lauren Mayk reports on the pivotal swing House seat, speaking to both Democratic Rep. Susan Wild and Republican Lisa Scheller about their candidacies and their plans if they win.
Ad watch: Kotek tries to distance herself from Gov. Brown
In Oregon’s three-way race for governor, Democratic nominee Tina Kotek is out with a new ad promising change, addressing Republican attacks that her administration would be a continuation of Democratic Gov. Kate Brown’s administration.
“Nobody in Oregon would say, let’s keep doing exactly what we’ve been doing. Certainly not me,” Kotek says in the ad.
“We certainly don’t need a red state takeover to clean up the damn trash,” Kotek adds later in the ad, referring to one of her opponents, Republican Christine Drazan, who has suggested electing a Republican governor would help deal with homelessness and housing shortages.
Kotek’s ad comes the same weekend Drazan’s campaign released a new ad featuring Democrats, independents and first-time voters planning to vote for her. “It’s time for a change,” one of them says in the ad.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
President Joe Biden told “The Sunday Show With Jonathan Capehart” that Republicans will “tear down” his accomplishments if they win the midterms.
NBC News’ Scott Wong examines the movement among younger elected Democrats to replace the party’s aging leadership.
With roughly two weeks left until Election Day, Democrats are struggling to find a cohesive message on inflation, NBC News’ Shannon Pettypiece, Alex Seitz-Wald, Jonathan Allen and Adam Edelman write.
