WASHINGTON — If it’s Friday ... Trump encourages DOJ to release the Mar-a-Lago search warrant. … A man who fired a nail gun into an FBI building called for violence on social media. … The CDC updates its Covid guidance as a new school year looms. … House Democrats plan to vote on a Senate-passed reconciliation bill. ... Lt. Gov John Fetterman returns to the Pennsylvania Senate campaign trail. … And Hawaii holds its primaries on Saturday.
But first: If one thing is certain about the FBI’s decision to search former President Donald Trump’s Florida residence, it’s that there’s still a lot we don’t know.
So here are three major questions we’re thinking about right now:
1. What do we know about the FBI search?
We know the search was related to concerns Trump brought classified materials to Florida after he left office. And last night, the Washington Post reported that the FBI was looking for “classified documents relating to nuclear weapons,” citing people familiar with the investigation. NBC News has not independently verified that report.
It’s important to note the caveats in the Post story: The sources didn’t say whether such documents were actually found at Mar-a-Lago. And it’s not clear exactly what type of information agents were looking for, and whether it involved the U.S. or another country.
In a statement this morning, Trump denied that the search was related to nuclear weapons.
2. What’s next?
It seems likely the search warrant and a list of items seized in the search could be made public. While a judge gave Trump’s team until 3 p.m. today to decide if they would fight Attorney General Merrick Garland’s motion to disclose the warrant, Trump said in a statement overnight that the warrant should be released immediately. (Trump could also release the warrant himself.)
It’s still not clear when we could see the warrant and property list, or what the documents would reveal, or how much could be redacted.
3. How will Republicans respond?
Many Republicans spent the 48 hours after the news broke rallying around Trump as the victim and trashing the FBI. Only a small handful of Republicans preached caution and called for the process to play out (and some of those who did so quickly backtracked).
But the drumbeat has receded significantly, replaced by a quiet unease (except on the far-right, which has shown no indication they’re interested in ratcheting the rhetoric down). That might be because the Justice Department is ready to show at least part of its justification, recent reporting may have left some Republicans nervous about Trump’s exposure, or because a Capitol riot attendee who spent the last few days talking about killing FBI agents on social media just attacked an FBI building in Cincinnati.
“We must not tolerate this one,” the man wrote on social media shortly after the news of the search warrant went public, replying to another user: “You’re a fool if you think there’s a nonviolent solution.”
That incident was another reminder that people listen when Republican politicians compare a law enforcement search to a third-world coup. And it’s why there will be even more of a microscope on how Republicans respond to this fast-changing story.
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … $1.1 billion
That’s how much money has been booked on political ads, per AdImpact, from Labor Day through Election Day, with the number expected to swell in the coming months.
Right now, Democrats have the edge in planned spending in top statewide races. Across the Senate map, Democrats have reserved $229 million to Republicans’ $181 million. In governor’s races, Democrats have reserved $118 million worth of airtime while Republicans have booked $66 million.
But Republicans hold the edge in planned House spending, reserving $173 million on the airwaves while Democrats have booked $159 million.
Other numbers to know:
41%: That’s the share of voters surveyed in a new Fox News poll who said they’d support a Republican candidate for Congress. The congressional ballot was actually tied, with the same percentage of voters saying they’d support a Democrat.
7: The number of years in prison that a former police officer who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 was sentenced to, tying the longest sentence related to the attack.
1960: The last time Washington elected a secretary of state who was not a Republican. The state is poised to do so again after Republicans were shut out of the top two who advanced to the general election.
15,000: The approximate shortfall of 2022 recruits that the Army had as its goal as the fiscal year ends in seven weeks.
43%: The share of Wyoming residents who believe “there is solid evidence that there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election.” That’s the same portion who believe there is no solid evidence, per a new University of Wyoming poll.
$2.8 million: How much money Democrat Daniel Goldman has spent on the airwaves, three-times as much as his Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, per a new Politico report featuring AdImpact.
Midterm roundup: Aloha to more primaries
Tuesday wasn’t the end of primaries this week — Hawaii is hosting primaries on Saturday. The state conducts elections almost entirely by mail, and ballots must be returned by Election Day. There are two open primaries to watch, where the Democratic contests will determine the expected winner in November in the deep blue state.
Nine Democrats are competing in the primary to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. David Ige. The leading candidates in the race include Lt. Gov. Josh Green, Rep. Kai Kahele, and businesswoman Vicky Cayetano.
Cayetano and Green have spent the most on ads in the race, per AdImpact, with Green getting help on the airwaves from an outside group known as Be Change Now. The three candidates clashed in a recent debate, questioning each other’s character.
Kahele’s decision to run for governor opened up the 2nd District, sparking a competitive Democratic primary that has attracted more than $1 million in outside spending.
Most of it has been to support state Rep. Patrick Branco, who has support from BOLD PAC, the Hispanic Caucus’ political arm, VoteVets and Web3Forward, a PAC funded by cryptocurrency executives. Former state Sen. Jill Tokuda has been backed by the Progressice Caucus PAC, which has spent largely on mail and digital ads, per the Honolulu Civil Beat.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Alaska Senate: A new ad from Republican Kelly Tshibaka attacks Sen. Lisa Murkowski for voting for Interior Sec. Deb Haaland, criticizing the secretary on gas prices.
Florida Senate: Democratic Rep. Val Demings raised a whopping $4.8 million in the month of July, according to pre-primary reports filed with the FEC. She more than doubled GOP Sen. Marco Rubio’s $2 million haul over that same period.
North Carolina Senate: The National Republican Senatorial Committee is launching a joint TV ad buy with GOP Rep. Ted Budd’s campaign, reserving $748,00 in airtime, per AdImpact. This would be Budd’s first TV ad since the May primary, while his opponent, Democrat Cheri Beasley, has dropped nearly $4.7 million on the airwaves since then.
Pennsylvania Senate: Republican Mehmet Oz is challenging Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman to five debates. And in his first television interview since before his stroke, Fetterman briefly addressed his stroke, telling the network he feels up to getting back on the campaign trail. Fetterman is also holding his first campaign rally since the stroke tonight, where he’s expected to discuss his health struggles, the Associated Press reports.
Wisconsin Senate: As attack ads are set to blanket the airwaves in Wisconsin, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is up with a positive spot touting his “humble beginnings.”
New York-02: Defending Main Street, a Republican Super PAC, launched a six-figure ad campaign supporting Rep. Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y. The campaign, ahead of Garbarino’s primary this month, will include both mail and television advertising.
Wyoming At-Large: Republican Rep. Liz Cheney trails Republican Harriet Hageman by 29 points among likely GOP primary voters in a new University of Wyoming poll.
Ad watch: Rand Paul’s PAC backs Palin
Ahead of Alaska’s special congressional election on Tuesday, Protect Freedom PAC, an outside group aligned with Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is out with an ad backing Sarah Palin.
Palin, a former Alaska governor and a former GOP vice presidential nominee, is one of four candidates who advanced in a special election to replace the late Republican Rep. Don Young, although one candidate dropped out after the primary..
The ad touts Palin’s endorsements from Trump and Paul, with a narrator telling viewers, “Joe Biden and the radical left want to destroy our country, but America-first conservative Sarah Palin won’t let them.”
So far, the Protect Freedom has spent over $117,000 on ads backing Palin, in a race where no candidate has spent over $360,000 on ads, per AdImpact.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
A new excerpt from the forthcoming book written by NBC News’ Ali Vitali highlights how questions about the “electability” of female presidential candidates like Sen. Elizabeth Warren loomed over the 2020 presidential primary.
Trump said he won’t oppose a move to unseal the search warrant that led to an FBI-led search at Mar-a-Lago on Monday.
New CDC guidance unveiled on Thursday lets students remain in class after they’ve been exposed to Covid-19.
The Federal Elections Commission approved Google’s request for a pilot program that would ensure political emails don’tget ensnared by spam filters.
