Happening this Wednesday: President Biden discusses the economy and clean-energy manufacturing in Rep. Lauren Boebert’s, R-Colo., district at 3:30 pm ET… NBC’s Carol E. Lee and Courtney Kube report on the Biden-Obama divide over how closely to support Israel… New Trump TV ad hits Biden on foreign policy… And the American public is screaming for change, but the two major 2024 frontrunners represent anything but, NBC’s Chuck Todd writes.
But FIRST... Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has been on a roll lately — she picked up the endorsement from the Koch political network, she’s moved up in the polls, and she’s gaining donors among Republicans who see her as the best alternative to Donald Trump.
There’s one big problem for Haley, however: The GOP coalition that’s propelling her rise isn’t necessarily a winning hand in today’s Republican Party.
According to the latest national NBC News poll, Haley’s voters — those who pick her either as their first or second choice in the GOP presidential primary — are disproportionately moderates and college-educated Republicans.
That compares with Trump’s voters, who are disproportionately “very” conservative voters and who don’t have college degrees.
What’s more, Trump’s support from these conservative/non-college voters hasn’t budged since April’s NBC News poll; in fact, if anything, it’s increased.
Now Haley’s coalition — at least as it stands right now — could help her in the New Hampshire GOP primary, where independent voters tend to play an outsized role.
Remember, former Ohio Gov. John Kasich finished second in New Hampshire in 2016.
Yet that coalition doesn’t help as much in, say, Haley’s own state of South Carolina, where NBC’s Jonathan Allen, Allan Smith and Dasha Burns report on polling showing how Trump’s lead in the state expands in a one-on-one contest versus Haley.
What our NBC News poll shows is this moderate/college wing of the Republican Party is open to a non-Trump alternative. Indeed, much of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ decline from April to November is due to these voters now backing Haley.
But that wing isn’t strong enough to go toe-to-toe against Trump.
At least not yet.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 290
That’s how many House lawmakers would need to vote to expel Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., this week in order for him to be removed from office. The number amounts to a two-thirds majority of the House.
The vote to expel Santos could take place as soon as Wednesday or Thursday.
House Ethics Chairman Michael Guest, R-Miss., filed the resolution to expel Santos before Thanksgiving following the release of a damning Ethics Committee report detailing Santos’ misuse of campaign funds.
It is not clear whether the expulsion resolution has enough votes to pass. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., told reporters on Tuesday that he is not whipping votes on the resolution, NBC’s Ryan Nobles and Garrett Haake report.
Eyes on 2024: Trump targets Biden on foreign policy
The Trump campaign launched a new TV ad on Wednesday taking aim at President Joe Biden’s recent weakness: foreign policy.
The 30-second spot features footage of Trump with U.S. soldiers as a narrator says, “As commander in chief, he always had his soldiers’ backs, was always there to support them and their families. He kept his promise to keep them out of endless wars.”
The narrator goes on to say that “having a weak leader can tragically lead to American deaths, which is why America needs strength now, more than ever,” showing footage of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and of Biden appearing to check his watchduring a ceremony where the bodies of Marines killed in a Kabul airport bombing were brought back to the country.
The botched withdrawal from Afghanistan marked the beginning of a drop in Biden’s approval rating. And the latest NBC News national poll finds the war between Israel and Hamas also negatively affecting Biden’s approval, with a notable drop in voters who approve of his handling of foreign policy.
In other campaign news …
Biden vs. Boebert: Biden is heading to GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert’s Colorado district on Wednesday to tout his economic agenda, per NBC’s Megan Lebowitz.
Biden’s Black voter challenge: Politico explores Biden’s struggles among Black voters in South Carolina – and the broader challenges facing the Democratic Party.
Switching sides: A former adviser to Sen. Tim Scott’s presidential campaign is now leading a new super PAC, Fight Right, focused on boosting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, per Politico.
Exit, stage left: Former Google executive Lexi Reese ended her campaign for Senate in California on Tuesday, citing a struggle to raise the money necessary to compete with other candidates who have sizable war chests.
Going on offense: With Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., not running for re-election, Democrats are looking to expand the Senate battlefield to Texas and Florida in their bid to keep their Senate majority, per HuffPost.
Back to the drawing board: Georgia legislators are launching a special session Wednesday to redraw the state’s legislative and congressional districts following a judge’s order to draw more districts with Black majorities.
Calling for change: NBC’s Chuck Todd explores how recent polling shows voters are demanding change, and pessimism among young voters could “create a sea change in our politics.”
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
Hunter Biden agreed on Tuesday to testify publicly in front of the House Oversight Committee, even though the committee initially requested a closed-door appearance.
Trump plans to use prosecutors’ words in the Jan. 6 trials of individual rioters to undermine the special counsel’s case against him, NBC’s Ryan J. Reilly reports.
Students for Trump co-founder Ryan Fournier was charged last week with assault, court documents show.
