WASHINGTON — If it’s Tuesday ... It’s Primary Day in Indiana (where final polling places close at 7:00 p.m. ET) and Ohio (where they close at 7:30 p.m. ET) ... President Biden heads to Alabama to visit a facility making Javelin anti-tank missiles ... Chicago launches bid to host 2024 Democratic convention, per NBC’s Natasha Korecki. ... And more than $70 million gets spent on ads in Ohio’s Senate primaries.
But first: We’ve told you that abortion had the potential to upend the 2022 midterms.
And just look what happened when — in an extraordinary leak — Politico published a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. Wade and a nationwide right to an abortion in this country.
The news and political conversation immediately changed — from Ukraine, inflation and Biden’s standing, to abortion and what happens in a post-Roe world.
“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” Justice Samuel Alito writes in the draft majority opinion, according to Politico. “It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.” (NBC News has not confirmed nor obtained the draft opinion.)
Now all of the caveats: This is a draft opinion, so it’s possible (though unlikely) that a justice could switch his or her vote later this summer; we have no idea what other issues will dominate the rest of the year; and midterms are traditionally referendums on a sitting president, not on what happens at the U.S. Supreme Court.
But here’s what we do know, as we wrote back in December: If you get rid of Roe, every single state will need a position on fetus viability, weeks when you can/can’t have an abortion, parental notification, sonograms and possible exceptions (like on rape, incest or threat to the mother’s life).
And every single primary and general election could be dominated by those specific positions — all in a nation where a majority of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and where even more say they support Roe v Wade.
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Midterm roundup: Primary season returns
While the bombshell reporting about the future of Roe v. Wade has taken hold of the news cycle, the primary show must go on. Voters are voting in Ohio and Indiana today in the first spate of primaries in more than a month.
The grand prize of Tuesday night is in Ohio’s Senate race, where five candidates are scrapping for the right to win the GOP nomination (Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan is the heavy favorite on his side).
We’re also keeping an eye on Ohio’s gubernatorial primary, a rematch in Ohio’s 11th District Democratic primary, and a handful of House primaries in competitive races that could help shape the battle for the House majority in the fall.
Polls close in Ohio at 7:30 p.m. ET, while Indiana’s polls close at 6:00 p.m. ET in the eastern part of the state and at 7:00 p.m. ET in the western part.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Georgia Senate: Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s new ad centers on his childhood and his mother, his latest spot that uses Warnock’s personal story to try to connect with voters outside of the partisan lens.
North Carolina Senate: The Club for Growth PAC, which is backing GOP Rep. Ted Budd in the May 24 Senate primary, released a poll showing Budd with a 20-point lead over GOP Gov. Pat McCrory, and above the 30 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
Ohio Senate: State Sen. Matt Dolan slammed author J.D. Vance for campaigning with — and defending — Florida GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, who is under investigation for sex trafficking (Gaetz has denied the allegations and has not been charged with a crime). “If [Vance is] demeaning law enforcement and having, let’s just say, questionable people supporting him from out of Ohio, Ohioans need to know that,” Dolan told NBC News.
Georgia Governor: Former President George W. Bush will appear at a fundraiser for GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, per Politico. Kemp’s campaign is also bringing on Marc Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, as a senior advisor, NBC’s Blayne Alexander and Charlie Gile report.
Ohio-11: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., endorsed and sent a fundraising pitch for Democrat Nina Turner in her primary race against Shontel Brown, hours before voters head to the polls, per the New York Times.
Tennessee-05: One of the Republicans barred from the Tennessee primary ballot is taking his case to federal court, NBC’s Allan Smith reports.
Texas-28: In a decision announced before Monday night’s Roe reporting, EMILY’s List and NARAL announced they are running a new digital ad aimed at turning out Democrats for progressive Jessica Cisneros by pointing to Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar’s past votes against expanding abortion access. Monday also brought a new spate of ad reservations to the district, including $200,000 for Cisneros, $100,000 for Cuellar and $350,000 from United Democracy Project (which is affiliated with AIPAC).
Wyoming At-Large: Donald Trump’s Save America PAC announced the former president will hold a rally on May 28 in Casper, Wyo. to boost Harriet Hageman, who Trump has endorsed in the primary race against GOP Rep. Liz Cheney.
Data Download: The number of the day is … $73.3 million
That’s how much money has been spent on ads in the Ohio Senate primaries, surpassing all other Senate races so far, with $69.9 million spent on the GOP primary alone, per AdImpact. Just $3.4 million has been spent in the Democratic primary, with $2.9 million coming from Rep. Tim Ryan’s campaign.
Investment banker Mike Gibbons’ campaign spent the most of any candidate or outside group on ads, dropping $13.5 million on the race. The super PAC Protect Ohio Values spent $10.4 million on ads to bolster “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance, whose own campaign spent $1.7 million on the airwaves.
State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, spent $9.3 million on ads. Club for Growth Action, a conservative outside group backing state Treasurer Josh Mandel, spent $8.9 million on ads while Mandel’s campaign spent $6.2 million. USA Freedom Fund, which is also backing Mandel, has spent $4.8 million.
Former Ohio GOP Chairwoman Jane Timken spent $4.1 million on ads. She also had help from a pair of outside groups, Ohio Leads and Winning for Women Action Fund, which have spent nearly $3.7 million combined.
Other numbers you need to know today:
13: The number of states, according to Axios, with so-called trigger laws banning abortion that would take effect if Roe v. Wade is overturned.
3: The number of GOP congressmen who received interview requests from the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
554,000: The approximate voter registration lead that Democrats have over Republicans in Pennsylvania, a margin that’s about half of what it was in 2012.
$1.5 million: That’s how much Wisconsin Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ campaign is spending on its first TV ad buy tracked by AdImpact.
$3 billion: That’s how much money the Biden administration is planning to make available to U.S manufacturers that make electric vehicle batteries.
Ad watch: Taking on members of her own party
Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., is touting herself as a centrist in a new ad where she makes a point to take on her own party on issues like inflation.
The ad opens by highlighting rising prices, with a news anchor adding: “Sen. Maggie Hassan is on a mission to ease the pain at the pump.”
“I’m taking on members of my own party to push a gas tax holiday,” Hassan says later in the ad.
“And I’m pushing Joe Biden to release more of our oil reserves.”
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that Boston erred by not letting a local group fly a Christian flag at a city hall flagpole that had been open to other groups.
Vice President Harris tested negative for Covid Monday and is expected to return to work after contracting the virus late last month.
Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, who is seen to be eying a 2024 bid, will tell Republicans Tuesday that “we won’t win back the White House by nominating Donald Trump or a cheap impersonation of him.”
