Expectations have hit the Washington Nationals. Not too hard, yet. But more than enough to get the team's full attention.
All season, Frank Robinson said he wanted his team "to fly under the radar" as long as possible. But a 26-6 winning streak and a brief 5 1/2- game lead in the National League East on the Fourth of July will cause a great big blip on any baseball screen.
So, the sport now has the Nats in its sights. They're being analyzed and evaluated, put under every microscope like an odd and fragile insect that's never been seen this late into the summer. What should be expected of them?
These Nationals, with their average home crowd of more than 33,000 and fancy winning percentages in one-run and home games, are certainly not the team that lost 95 games in Montreal last season. But, just as surely, they are not the near-miraculous club that went 50-31 in the first half of the season, a 100-win pace. The truth lies in between. But where?
These days, when Washington stumbles and loses eight of 11 games -- every one of those contests a nail-bitter of exactly the type that the Nats dominated until recently -- their mishaps and gaffes no longer go unnoticed. In late May, the Nats went 1-7. Few outside the town or team even noticed. Now, as the Atlanta Braves cut their lead to 1 1/2 games entering last night's contest at RFK Stadium, everybody wants to know, "Wither the Nats?"
Before last night's game against Colorado, General Manager Jim Bowden sat in the Nationals' dugout and said, with a straight face and no hint of irony, "We're a serious contender right now. We are legit. So, fill the house up and have fun. With no more [trading] moves we can win the World Series.
"I didn't say the division. I said the World Series," emphasized Bowden. "You can win a short [postseason] series with this team. Match us up. Let's go.
"We do need to get healthy. But wait until we get healthy. Get ready. We ain't started yet. This has been the appetizer so far. From July 18 to September 15 is the entree. Then comes the dessert."
Just an hour earlier, Robinson sat in his office and offered a perfect sensible contrast to his hyperbolic boss. "I think we'll be all right," he said. "You need to right the ship before you get holes in it and start sinking. The players aren't panicking, but they are concerned.
"We've been making more fundamental mistakes than usual. I said [two weeks ago] that if we didn't clean up our act it would catch up with us. But we're not that far off."
With that, the Nats played a Rockies team with a 7-35 road record this year. Overall, Colorado is the second-worst team in baseball. But away from their mile-high home, they are one of the most abysmal teams in baseball in many a year. To get the Rockies to win a game at your house, you have to give them an engraved invitation, hand-delivered to their dugouts.
So the Nationals did.
With vets at most position, against a team littered with rookies, it was Washington that played scared.
The National who offended most was starter Tony Armas Jr., the son of an American League home run champ but not yet in the fierce competitor category. On a muggy 87-degree night, he lasted two innings before leaving the game because of "dizziness and dehydration." The most probable reason for this condition was that Armas had to run the bases in the previous half inning. He poked a single to right field and ran so slowly to first base that the right fielder should have thrown him out but bobbled the ball. Then, with two outs, Brad Wilkerson fouled off many 3-2 pitches in a fine battle with submariner Byung Hyun Kim. On each pitch, Armas had to make, as a concession to baseball tradition, a "break" toward second base.
After two balls to the opposing pitcher to start the next inning, Armas declared himself unfit for combat and left the bullpen to do his work for him. Since long man Sunny Kim worked three scoreless inning on Sunday in Milwaukee, the pen was almost bare -- except for 35-year-old southpaw tough guy Joey Eischen, who rushed back from a gruesomely broken right forearm in exactly two months.
Eischen pitched three fine innings but was ultimately charged with two runs, largely due to his comedic defense which had a wild throw on an infield hit, a passed ball and a fly ball misplayed into a triple by ex-Rockie Preston Wilson.
The Rockies tried to act like themselves and help the Nats. Four Colorado players surrounded, but could not catch, a Wilson popup that fell for a first-inning double that led to two runs. Another run scored to tie the game at 4 in the seventh inning when a throw skipped past third baseman Garrett Atkins.
The most stunning example of Rockies generosity came earlier in the fourth inning, when the Nats loaded the bases on an infield hit, a walk and a misplayed sacrifice bunt on which the hustling Eischen, who is in the kind of shape customarily associated with a professional athlete, beat out at a full sprint. At this point, the rattled Kim threw a pitch behind Wilkerson and against the backstop. However, the ball caromed crazily back to catcher Danny Ardoin, who picked the shocked and embarrassed Brian Schneider off third base.
This game demonstrated, beyond one night's score, that the Nats need to calm down considerably.
Much less will probably be required of the Nats than they suspect. If they win half of their last 70 games, they would end with 88 wins. Assume for argument's sake that the Braves end up winning the NL East. If that is the case, then the Nats will end up competing for the wild card with the Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Cubs and Astros, who all trail them by 5 1/2 to 7 games.
For any of those teams to win 89 games, they would need to play better than .590 ball. And the Marlins and Cubs, the most likely challengers, would need to play better than .610. Are any of them good enough to do it? The answer may be a surprise.
The Nationals have been beaten up all season with the same old statistic: Washington has been outscored by the league (by seven runs). But look at the run differentials entering last night of the Marlins (+2), Cubs (+17), Phils (+6), Mets (+12) and Astros (-3).
If the Nats are simply a solid competitive club, but not an exceptional one, then that same description applies to all of the teams that they are likely to face for the final NL playoff spot.
Robinson knows the numbers. "We probably don't have to be spectacular" to make the playoffs, he acknowledged. "But we be can certainly play better than 35-35."
If the Nats get cleanup hitter Nick Johnson back in the lineup this month, there's no reason they shouldn't stabilize.
"Every team has spells like this one. We'll come out of it," Robinson said. "But it gives the fans mood swings that are amazing to watch. Everything's awful or else everything great. If you think their mood swings are big now, come back in September if we're still in it. They'll be swinging back and forth from one pitch to another."
