ATLANTA
Take all the 12 seeds.
That's the secret, office pool strategists say, to picking the first round of an NCAA Tournament bracket.
So simple.
So accurate.
The games matching the No. 5 seeds and No. 12 seeds from each of the four regions have become the opening round's upset specials ever since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Since '85, 26 No. 12 seeds have won opening round games. At least one No. 12 seed has made it to the second round of the tourney 15 of the last 16 years, including two last year. Three years ago, all four No. 12 seeds advanced.
The upsets are so common the term "12-5 game" is as much a part of NCAA Tournament vernacular as "March Madness."
"Oh, here we go," said Paul Hewitt, the coach at Georgia Tech, which faces 12th-seeded George Washington in an opening-round game Friday in Nashville, Tenn., when asked about being a No. 5 seed. "I know all about the 12-5 stuff."
The irony for Hewitt's Yellow Jackets is they bettered their seed by beating No. 2 North Carolina and advancing to the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament title game last weekend. Had they lost to the Tar Heels in the ACC semifinals, they might be closer to a No. 10 seed like ACC brethren North Carolina State, which lost to Duke in the ACC's other semifinal.
"We could have been seeded lower even with the tournament run," Hewitt said.
That's wishful thinking on Hewitt's part, and for good reason. The NCAA selection committee tends to reserve the Nos. 7 through 10 seeds for middling teams from power conferences or perennial winners from mid-major leagues.
That means many of the upstart teams from smaller conferences fill in the Nos. 11, 12 or 13 spots.
Once those teams establish themselves, they pop up as higher seeds in following years: Pacific, a No. 12 seed last year, is a No. 8 seed this year; Gonzaga, a No. 12 in 2001, was a sixth-seed in 2002, a ninth-seed in 2003, a second-seed last year and a third-seed this season; College of Charleston, a No. 12 seed in 1997, was a No. 8 two years later.
And with the influx of foreign players, many of whom end up at smaller schools, and the general parity around college basketball, the lesser-known, lower-seeded teams are no longer overmatched.
"Seeds don't mean anything, and not just in the 12-5 game," said Georgia Tech point guard Jarrett Jack. "A No. 16 seed can upset a No. 1 seed even. I know it's never happened, but still people see the names of universities they never heard of and they expect 30, 40, 50-point wins.
"You have to realize each team is going to give you their best shot every night. Nobody wants to go home. Nobody wants their season to end."
Jack speaks from experience. Georgia Tech started last season's Final Four run as a No. 3 seed and scrambled to beat three lower-seeded teams in the first three rounds.
The Jackets defeated No. 14 Northern Iowa 65-60, No. 6 Boston College 57-54 and No. 10 Nevada 72-67.
Then again, Georgia Tech didn't face a No. 12 seed last year.
The Yellow Jacket players aren't getting caught up in the 12-5 talk, at least not publicly. They voiced more concern over the quality of their opponent - George Washington has a 22-7 record and won the Atlantic 10 Conference title - than the history of No. 5 seeds vs. No. 12s.
"I'm not superstitious about something like that," center Luke Schenscher said. "But regardless of what the seed is, every team is in the tournament for a reason. They've all shown they're pretty capable of winning."
Reach reporter Adam Van Brimmer at [email protected] or 404-589-8424.
What's in a seed?
The NCAA Tournament expanded from 48 teams to 64 in 1985, and No. 12 seeds have won 26 first-round games since. That's almost as many as the No. 10 seeds, more than the number of No. 11 seeds and significantly more than the Nos. 12, 14, 15 and 16 seeds. A look at the success of the lower-seeded teams:
Seed|First-round wins (out of 80 games)|Sweet 16 appearances|Final Four appearances
No. 9|43|2|0
No. 10|30|16|0
No. 11|25|10|1
No. 12|26|13|0
No. 13|16|2|0
No. 14|13|1|0
No. 15|4|0|0
No. 16|0|0|0
