Here it is Thursday morning at 12:30 and Ivan is now within a few miles of landfall. Mobile Bay, Alabama or just a tad east toward Pensacola, Florida seems the likely ground zero. Using the right hand rule, the area all the way to Fort Walton Beach will bear full fledged hurricane conditions. The right hand rule refers to the most dangerous side of the storm which in the northern hemisphere is to the right of the storm's motion.
By the way college students, Panama City Beach, spring break mecca that it is, will see winds to 80 mph.
In Ivan's case, I expect hurricane force winds (75 mph) to roar all the way inland to Southern and Central Alabama and even Western Georgia. Atlanta and Athens in North Georgia should both feel gusts to 70 mph Thursday night. This in addition to 5"-10" of rain and flash flooding puts the Herd's game on Saturday in jeopardy. Read below on my Athens forecast.
Enough physics, you want to know about our region and travel destinations. How will they be affected? Here's my latest and as always I urge you to check with our updates as we are dealing with the greatest storm on the planet, the Hurricane.
OUR REGION
After a spring and summer of high water, Ivan must be respected as a flash flood producer. Rivers and streams have settled to normal fall levels, but the ground is much wetter than it was when Frances passed through. Since my colleagues from the National Weather Service in Jackson, KY are predicting 5"-9" of rain for the Kentucky Coalfields, I urge anyone who lives along a stream prone to flooding to stay abreast of the situation. That type of rain could prove very serious.
Our window for flooding comes Friday night through Sunday Morning. But a lot has to go wrong for us to have a major flood. For now, count on showers by Thursday night and Friday morning with heavier tropical rains likely arriving thereafter. I posted a likely storm total of up to 5" for our area, but I caution anyone reading this that pinpointing how much rain will fall at any one point is a crap shoot until we see if and when Ivan stalls. Decaying hurricanes are known to dump as much as 10"-20" of rain where they stall. Right now I think the storm could stall close between Gatlinburg, TN and Asheville, NC.
ATHENS, GEORGIA
If my analysis of Ivan is on target, I believe Ivan will move northward Thursday and come very close to Sanford Stadium by Friday morning. Herd fans, I will be honest. I feel there will be power outages in Athens and 5"-10" of rain. I would not be surprised that the game was cancelled. Oddly, I feel the skies may brighten Saturday afternoon with only "leftover" tropical showers. So if Athens survives the storm on Friday, you can enjoy football 'Tween the Hedges'. Game time temperature a very muggy 79.
If you are traveling to the game, Friday will be wet and stormy most of the way. I can't recommend one route (I-75, I-77 or RT 23) over the others simply because all 3 will be nasty. My advice, get on the road early and travel by day when visibility is better.
MYRTLE BEACH
The famous Strand is on the outside looking in at Ivan, a good place to be. It is unlikely any serious direct effects from Ivan will be felt at Myrtle Beach. Still, Ivan will help make the air very steamy at Myrtle and with a sea breeze blowing all weekend long, a shower or thunderstorm will be around each day. Highs near 85. Lows only 75.
By the way, Tropical Storm Jeanne is at sea this Thursday morning and there is one scenario where she threatens the Carolinas next week as a hurricane.
TENNESSEE and NC MTS: GATLINBURG AND THE GREAT SMOKIES
Serious flood threat ensues this weekend. Avoid traveling here at all costs. 'Nuf said!
MORGANTOWN: 'EERS vs. TERPS
WVU fans, if Ivan stalls as expected, the threat of flooding rains never makes it to Northern West Virginia. An east wind blows stoutly on Saturday with occasional showers. Temperatures in the 70s.
CHARLOTTE AND PITTSBURGH
Ivan will delay/cancel flights into Charlotte's Douglas International airport this weekend as heavy rains and gusty winds team with low ceilings to make air travel tough. Pittsburgh on the other hand is in the "protected" zone. Will it rain there? Probably some showers, but flights should have minimal delays in the Steel City.
To summarize, Ivan is the storm of the summer and no doubt has some surprises in store for us this weekend.
