As it turned out, the only team Utah State's early loss in the Big West Conference tournament hurt was Utah State.
It was thought that Utah State and Southern Illinois, despite losses in their respective conference tournaments, could earn at-large berths in the NCAA tournament because of their overall seasons. That scenario would have robbed two bubble teams of slots.
Southern Illinois earned its berth, while the Aggies, who lost only one conference game during the regular season, were excluded. Utah State (25-3) has the best record of any team ever left out of the tournament, according to Jerry Palm's Ratings Percentage Index Web site. Charleston, which was 22-3 in 1996, previously had the best record of any excluded team, while Butler (2002) had the most wins (25) of any program left out.
"Whining is not going to accomplish a whole lot," Utah State Coach Stew Morrill told reporters last night. "You win 25 ballgames and you go 17-1 in your league and everyone says no matter what you're in. Well, no matter what happened, we're not in. It really sends a tough message to mid-majors out there. We were nationally ranked for six weeks, won 25 games and went 17-1 in our league and the bottom line is that you need to win your tournament."
This season featured top-tier teams such as Saint Joseph's and Stanford registering such impressive records (one loss apiece) that middling teams had more losses. The result: More teams "under consideration," as selection committee chairman Bob Bowlsby said, than in recent years. Seventy-five teams had 20 wins or more.
"It's sometimes so close a call you can't slide a piece of paper between them [two teams]," Bowlsby said.
Utah State's tournament résumé included one win against a non-Division I team, 12 wins against teams ranked 200 or worse in the RPI and a schedule strength ranked 186 nationally. The Aggies' RPI was respectable at 43 and two of their three losses were extremely close: four points to Pacific, one point to Cal State-Northridge in the Big West tournament.
"In the final evaluation they had only four games against teams in the top 100," said Bowlsby, referencing Utah State wins over Brigham Young and Pacific. "[They] really didn't appear to make much of an attempt to go out and schedule beyond the games that were scheduled in state with BYU and Utah. They've had many successful seasons. They tied for their conference title and lost to a team with a 190 RPI in the conference tournament."
Air Force, on the other hand, also had a subpar strength of schedule (183rd) and had lost early in the Mountain West Conference tournament. What's more, the Falcons had an RPI of 70, some 27 spots worse than the Aggies. The team with the worst RPI ever to receive an at-large bid was New Mexico, which had an RPI of 74 in 1999.
"It seems they value what you do more on the court than a computer," Air Force Coach Joe Scott said in an telephone interview.
To answer why Air Force got into the tournament — its first berth in 42 years — look at conference affiliation, Bowlsby said. Air Force won by two full games the MWC, which was rated as the nation's seventh-best conference. The Big West was rated 18th.
"[Air Force] didn't play a good nonconference schedule, there is not any question about that," Bowlsby said. "The nonconference schedule many times is the difference between getting in and not getting in. But I think this is where the human factor comes into the process. We just believed Air Force had a really outstanding year in a league that was highly ranked."
Coaches of mid-major teams repeatedly say that their margin for error to earn an at-large bid is much smaller than that of a team from a power conference.
"There are two bubbles out there," Western Michigan Coach Steve Hawkins said Saturday after his Broncos won the Mid-American Conference tournament to earn an automatic berth. "There is the mid-major bubble where people can hardly wait to knock you off. And there is the high-major bubble for teams that are mediocre and everyone says if they can just win two games in a row they can play their way onto the bubble. . . . Every game becomes an NCAA tournament game. When you lose it's the end of the world."
For mid-major teams, it's a lot more complicated than simply having the desire to schedule top teams. You also have to have the foresight, Hawkins said, to envision which teams will be good the following year. Hawkins's Broncos scheduled Arizona State and Southern California — two usually strong Pacific-10 teams — and beat both. The wins were hardly impressive, though, because both teams have been disappointments.
"We called everyone in America for games," Scott said. "Missouri, Notre Dame, they wouldn't play us."
After the announcement, Utah State players were understandably frustrated.
"Right now it is disappointing, like it was all for nothing," guard Mark Brown said.
Added guard Cardell Butler, "That was like a slap in the face."
