This year's NCAA tournament selection process will be defined as much for the quantity of bubble teams as for the lack of quality mid-major programs. With Gonzaga establishing itself among the nation's elite this season, the lone true mid-major team considered a lock to earn a berth into the 65-team NCAA tournament is Southern Illinois.
Outside of the Salukis, however, exists a diverse field of mid-majors uncertain about their postseason fate. As bracket gurus debate whether some of the power conferences should get six, seven or even eight berths, other smaller, less publicized leagues will be fortunate to get two.
"I'm going to be more than disappointed, I'm going to be angry [if the Western Athletic Conference doesn't get multiple bids]," Rice coach Willis Wilson said. "All the speculation needs to cease and people need to start paying attention to substance. . . . I think this league deserves to have three teams in the NCAA tournament. It's not without reason that four teams could get in if there was any justice in this system."
A handful of mid-major conference tournaments this week are must-see events, and not just because some teams will enhance tournament resumes or capture automatic berths. Unexpected results -- such as Southern Illinois losing to Southwest Missouri State yesterday in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament semifinals -- will spark chain reactions that will create or steal bubble teams' slots. No doubt interested parties in Columbia, Mo., Tallahassee and Boulder, Colo., among other bubble-team hubs, will watch with interest.
The last time Air Force made the NCAA tournament televisions were black and white and the Falcons' current coach, Joe Scott, had not yet been born. Forty-two years later the Falcons are on the brink of making the field with a team that plays a seductive, hard-to-stop Princeton-like offense.
In short, they have all the ingredients of a so-called Cinderella team the nation yearns to embrace. But despite Mountain West Conference Commissioner Craig Thompson recently calling Air Force the conference's best team, and the Falcons winning the regular season title, a berth is no sure thing.
The MWC has received three bids each of the past two years because of upset winners -- 2002 San Diego State and 2003 Colorado State -- in the conference tournament. This year, Brigham Young appears to have the best tournament credentials and should earn a berth even without winning the conference tournament. The Cougars (20-7) are ranked 28th in the Ratings Percentage Index, a measure of a team's wins and losses that factors in schedule strength.
Air Force, on the other hand, is 22-5 with an RPI of 56. If the Falcons do not earn the automatic berth, their tournament hopes could be in peril because of a schedule that ranks 174th. Utah, meantime, is a 21-8 team that sits at the center of the bubble-team debate. Although equipped with an RPI of 42, the Utes have lost three of their last five games.
"Clearly, Air Force is the best team in the Mountain West this year," Thompson said. "Does that mean they deserve to get in ahead of BYU and Utah? As the commissioner, I would argue yes."
For some conferences, such as the Atlantic Coast or Southeastern, parity is a compliment, an illustration of the conference's top-to-bottom strength. For others, such as the WAC, it might symbolize middling balance that won't alter the number of teams invited to the NCAA tournament.
The WAC has four teams with 20 or more wins and one team with 19. Yet the conference that stretches from Hawaii to Louisiana, is expected to get two berths, at most.
"I really believe there are four or five teams now that still have a chance, regardless of what any other league does," Texas-El Paso Coach Billy Gillispie said. "I could care less what other teams in other leagues have done. . . . The only thing we lack is exposure. Nobody in the country has to play an 18-game schedule with the travel [we have] involved. This league deserves at least three teams and a chance for another one or two to play their way in, regardless of what the Pac-10 does this year."
Gillispie, a Bill Self disciple, has masterminded one of the nation's best turnaround stories in his second year in El Paso. The Miners, 6-24 a year ago, are 22-6. The conference's other NCAA tournament-worthy team is Nevada, which has beaten Kansas at home this season.
The wildest scenario, of course, is if an unexpected team claims the automatic berth and eliminates UTEP (which has 18 wins against teams ranked 100 or worse), Nevada (5-8 away from Reno's high altitude) or both from the NCAA tournament field. The wild card: Fresno State, an undermanned squad because of key suspensions and dismissals, which has won two straight and hosts the event at its new $100 million arena.
Another interesting test case for the committee could be Utah State, a 25-2 team with a schedule strength of 183rd and 15 wins against teams ranked 200 or worse. The team with the most wins ever left out was Butler (25) in 2002. The program with the best record not to receive a berth was 1996 Charleston (22-3).
The Aggies, though 9-1 in their last 10 games, are no lock to win the Big West Conference tournament because of surging Pacific (22-7), which has won 13 straight games.
A team that could be in even more trouble hoping to secure an at-large bid is Western Michigan, a 23-4 team with a strength of schedule rated 205th. Kent State is dangerous in the Mid-American Conference tournament because the Golden Flashes have already beaten Western Michigan in January.
