A drought in the central and southern Plains is likely to continue through spring, a bad sign for farmers and ranchers, an agriculture meteorologist is predicting.
“The wheat crop got started with some early rains in some areas, but had a relatively dry fall situation. For the next few months down the road it does not look like we will see much increased precipitation,” said Creighton University meteorologist Art Douglas.
Speaking on the sidelines of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association annual convention here, Douglas said he expects a weak or dying El Nino system in 2004, which should prevent the formation of strong storms in the dry areas of the Plains this spring.
El Nino is the common name for the warming of the sea surface in the central Pacific Ocean. There was a mild warming of the sea surface in late 2003, but Douglas doubts it will continue, or if it does it will be weak.
A strong El Nino often affects weather over the United States, causing unusually dry or wet conditions.
Much of the western United States already is in the midst of a drought and Douglas said the weak El Nino system would likely extend it.
“I think overall it’s too weak to produce the big storms. Secondly, I think the El Nino is going to start dying in the next couple of months,” he said.
For cattle producers, the dry forecasts also indicate another year of poor pastures.
Cattle producers have held off expanding herds in part because previous drought conditions have reduced pastures, which are needed for grazing.
“The pasture situation is pretty bad. Grass really responds to fall precipitation and most of the fall we were pretty dry. If we don’t have much precipitation in the next few months it doesn’t look good,” Douglas said.
