When freshman state Rep. Frank Burns (D) held a cookout-fundraiser last summer, he invited every Democrat seeking statewide office to speak before 300 or so of his constituents in Johnstown. No one came except for a guy no one had ever heard of, from nearly 200 miles away.
"The only person to show up was an unknown person named Joe Sestak. He asked to speak for five minutes, and he wowed them," Burns recently recalled of the suburban Philadelphia congressman's upstart bid for the Senate.
With that, the freshman lawmaker and his Cambria County Democratic organization lined up behind Sestak against the institutional favorite, Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.).
It was the dog days of August when Sestak announced his bid against Specter, who had the backing of President Obama, Vice President Biden, Gov. Ed Rendell (D-Pa.), the state party organization and almost every key labor union.
Many national party leaders believed the backing of such prominent figures would overcome doubts about the more than 28 years Specter spent as a Republican representing Pennsylvania in the Senate. But those party leaders at the so-called "grass tops" have not exactly nailed down support for Specter at the true grass-roots level.
Many Democratic officials never warmed to the idea of Specter as a Democrat. The incumbent has the backing of heading into Tuesday's primary election, far more than Sestak. But, in a state House with 104 Democrats, more than 70 Democratic state representatives stayed neutral and are not helping Specter whip up votes.
One such example is state Rep. Joshua Shapiro (D), from vote-rich eastern Montgomery County, northwest of Philadelphia. An acolyte of Rendell, Shapiro, in just his third term, is widely touted as a future statewide candidate. He remained neutral in the race.
While many party strategists spent the winter and early spring wondering when Sestak would uncork the more than $5 million he collected on an advertising campaign, the two-term congressman instead went to work meeting the Frank Burnses of the world.
As he told a small crowd outside Johnstown 10 days ago, Sestak entered the race with 8 percent name recognition and had to go to every possible local Democratic meet-and-greet across the state, more than 500 since January, to overcome a polling deficit of more than 40 percentage points compared to the well-known five-term senator.
By early April, Sestak's name recognition grew to 55 percent among Democratic voters. At that point, he unleashed a more than $1.6 million campaign of mostly positive campaign ads touting his experience as a Navy admiral. Overall, he spent more than $2.4 million in April, according to Federal Election Commission reports.
Sestak, 58, campaigns against the entire Washington establishment, Democrats included, pitching himself as the angry populist calling for a "new generation" of leadership other than the 80-year-old Specter.
"They lost a lot of faith in Washington," Sestak said in a recent interview, describing voter anger on everything from Wall Street bailouts to the process of passing health-care legislation.
The contrast is intentional, casting himself as the true Democrat who doesn't change his views — or his party affiliation — to win votes. Whether true or not, the effort worked on many Democrats who had spent decades trying to find the right candidate to beat Specter. "He's sincere, less like a politician," Rep. Burns said.
As the polls tightenend, the national party apparatus continued to back Specter. Biden made a campaign appearance in his native Scranton and Rendell has been at Specter's side throughout the final days of the campaign. But there is a serious question about how much weight these endorsements carry.
Despite the backing of every major national labor union, Specter trails Sestak badly among union households, 60 percent to 36 percent, according to released last week.
More than a dozen local unions bucked national leaders and endorsed Sestak, as have a handful of county Democratic organizations.
After Sestak had established himself to voters as a recognizable alternative to Specter, he launched a string of tough advertisements in the last 10 days that have reminded Democratic voters of Specter's nearly 45 years as a Republican. The of Specter holding hands in 2004 with then-President Bush and then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) ran countless times the last few days, on everything from cable news to Philadelphia Flyers' NHL playoff games.
The onetime underdog has taken to calling himself "Surging Sestak," as some polls show he has edged slightly ahead of Specter.
In advance of what they now believe will be a Sestak upset win, Republicans are taking note of Obama's decision to not make a late campaign visit for Specter. "On Tuesday, instead of rallying voters to go to the polls for Senator Specter, the president is scheduled to fly right over Pennsylvania and visit a factory in Youngstown, Ohio," Rob Jesmer, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, wrote in a memo scheduled to be released Monday.
But the race remains tight. From Rendell in Shanachie Irish Pub in the Philadelphia suburb of Ambler to Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in Allegheny County outside Pittsburgh, senior Democrats were at Specter's side over the weekend vouching for his liberal credentials.
Specter's campaign pitch is simple: He delivers. As a senior member of the Appropriations Committee, Specter has steered billions of dollars to Pennsylvania's towns. The anti-incumbent environment has made that campaign pitch more difficult than in most years, but Specter is sticking to his script down the stretch.
Sestak's supporters worry that, while many local officials are neutral in the race, Specter's big trump card at the grassroots could well be those dollars he delivered to their communities.
"He's done a lot of good for a lot of people," Burns said. "That's why he can switch parties and still keep this a close race."
