By Martinne Geller
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Many U.S. retailers reported stronger-than-expected November sales on Thursday, helped by a post-Thanksgiving rush and discounts, but some notable misses and a shift in the retail calendar tempered analysts' enthusiasm about the strength of the key holiday season.
About 52 percent of retailers reported same-store sales that topped Wall Street expectations, while 45 percent missed forecasts, according to research firm Retail Metrics.
More post-Thanksgiving shopping days in the monthly retail reporting calendar boosted some same-store sales figures, but will deflate some results in December, helping to disguise the month's true winners and losers.
Results from discounters Target Corp and Family Dollar Stores Inc fell short of expectations, as more consumers -- and not just those with low incomes -- tightened their wallets in the face of rising food and fuel costs, increasing mortgage rates and tighter credit.
Excluding the calendar shift, luxury chains such as Saks Inc , Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom Inc performed the best, said Lazard Capital Markets analyst Todd Slater, as they have been much of this year. The difference is taking place in middle class spending, he said.
"The high end is shopping, the middle is trading down and everyone continues to buy their paper towels and Fruit Loops," Slater wrote, referring to the daily staples that many consumers are prioritizing over discretionary buys.
Patricia Walker, a senior executive with consulting firm Accenture's retail practice, said the results were a "mixed bag." Retailers that took advantage of all the publicity around "Black Friday," the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday that traditionally kicks off the holiday shopping season, were able to boost sales, she added.
"The key question for all of these retailers is: Can they keep the momentum going in December?" Walker said.
Target, whose shares closed down more than 7 percent on Thursday, said November sales at stores open at least a year, adjusted for the shift, rose 1.1 percent, below its forecast range of 2 to 4 percent.
If the recent soft trend continued, Target said, its December sales could also miss its forecast.
Target's warning is cause for concern when coupled with comments from other retailers that sales last week were sluggish even after "the Black Friday hype," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics.
Discount rival Wal-Mart Stores Inc said U.S. same-store sales rose 1.5 percent in November, and results were "solid" as the holiday rush got under way.
The world's largest retailer made an early push to try to drive holiday sales, cutting prices on more than 15,000 items.
Wal-Mart's same-store sales increase was slightly better than analysts had expected and within its planned range. It forecast a U.S. same-store sales gain of 1 to 3 percent for the holiday-heavy month of December.
Investors and economists watch the sales data closely to gain insight into the strength of consumer spending, which makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
CLOTHES SPURRED BY COLD
Apparel retailers, on average, posted a 1.5 percent increase in November same-store sales, according to a sales-weighted index tracked by Standard & Poor's analyst Marie Driscoll. She said it beat her 1 percent projection and the year-earlier increase of 1.1 percent.
"An early Thanksgiving benefited retailers as shoppers flocked to stores on Black Friday, and weekend mall traffic rose 4.8 percent," Driscoll wrote in a research note. "But most retailers experienced a slowdown in the final November week, and we would not extrapolate strength forward."
AnnTaylor Stores Corp , whose shares closed down 3 percent, said its namesake chain experienced very soft traffic in the second half of the month, and traffic deteriorated as time went on.
But for other clothing chains, who either offered deep discounts or had the right fashions, sales of cold-weather items like sweaters and coats were helped by November temperatures that were much cooler than last year's record-high November, according to weather-tracking firm Planalytics.
Department stores, many of which benefited from the calendar shift, offered an unclear picture. Sales at Kohl's Corp , Macy's Inc , Nordstrom Inc and Saks Inc topped expectations, while those at J.C. Penney Co Inc , Dillard's Inc and Bon-Ton Stores Inc missed.
"We anticipate a challenging retail month ahead, uncomfortable for most retailers as much of the business will come at the end of the month," wrote Stifel Nicolaus analyst Richard Jaffe in a research note. "Judicious use of discounts and promotions will likely be key to driving sales while preserving margins as consumers procrastinate."
(Additional reporting by Nicole Maestri; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick and Tim Dobbyn)
