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College campus political chatter (Kemper Ohlmeyer, Hardball College All-Star)
With about a thousand days left to go in his term, George W. Bush pegged the proverbial elephant in the living room: the war will go on, future presidents will have to deal with it, and, in an ironic Clinton-era remix, he feels America’s pain.
You wouldn’t know it on campus though. At this point, calling college co-eds apathetic is akin to, well, pick your cliché. In short, Bush made one of the most significant statements of the three-year-old war and no one knows. Unfortunately, all indications on my campus are that there is really just no compelling reason for anyone inside the collegiate bubble to care right now.
The campus Democrats’ cries to fear Rep. Charlie Rangel’s (D-NY) call for a military draft for our generation have long since subsided. No one believes that this president or any other—regardless of political identity—would risk alienating not only the young voters, but also their parents, the soon-to-be-parents, and the I-don’t-have-kids-but-they-sure-are-cute vote. That would be suicide.
The consistency of Bush’s low poll numbers has numbed the student body. We know they’re low (job approval under 40% right now), but haven’t they always been? In my experience, Bush was never popular on campus to start with. Even when his approval was much higher (say, 70% in 2003), the president still had little support on campus. For college kids, at least the majority of the ones that I know, the rest of the country has realized what we knew all along.
Lastly, there is no pressing social issue to fire up any of our seemingly innumerable special-interest campus groups. The Supreme Court battles are over, and while the abortion issue will certainly rear its head some day soon, advocates are quiet right now. In my campus conversations, the biggest race issue in the country is whether forcing NBA players to wear suits is making an effort to “white-ify” them. The “oppressed minority” voice is hushed. And, frankly, most of us can barely think of what to do this weekend, much less what we’ll do after we are done with the workforce. So, unfortunately, few care about General Motors employees’ woes.
And, perhaps unsurprisingly, reigns supreme, as it always does. Somehow the intricacies of Chinese currency manipulation take a back seat when there are buzzer-beaters to watch.
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Iran: Israel's air-strike options (Lt. Col. Rick Francona)
Let's assume that Iran has exhausted the world’s patience over its “peaceful nuclear energy” research program - a program most analysts believe is a cover for a nuclear weapons program. Israel has indicated in clear terms that it will not permit Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. What are Israel's options to derail the program?
Most analysts agree that Israel does not have the capability to strike all of the sites associated with the program - estimates range between 12 and more than 20 locations. With limited power projection capabilities, Israeli intelligence analysts will determine the critical portions of the program - the key elements that if destroyed will slow down the effort. In 1981, the Israeli air force successfully crippled the Iraqi nuclear program with a daring daylight air raid on the key element of that program – the French-built Osirak reactor at At-Tuwaythah, just south of Baghdad. The single most critical element In the Iranian program is thought to be the centrifuge facility at Natanz (also known as the Esfahan enrichment facility).
The Natanz facility is a challenging target. The heart of the facility is the centrifuge area, located in an underground, hardened structure. The Iranians are fully aware of Israeli capabilities and no doubt have studied what the Israelis did to the Iraqi program a quarter century ago. They are also aware of the demonstrated capability of the American-made precision-guided penetrating munitions ("bunker busters") in the Israeli inventory. The Iranian program has been dispersed all over the country; the facilities have been built with American and Israeli capabilities in mind and are protected by modern Russian air defense systems.
Aside from the difficult nature of the target itself is its geographic location in relation to Israel. The straight-line distance between Israel and Natanz is almost 1000 miles. (At-Tuwaythah was only 600 miles). Since the countries do not share a common border, Israeli aircraft or missiles must fly through foreign - and hostile - airspace to get to the target.
The least risky method of striking Natanz is with Israel's medium range ballistic missiles, the Jericho II or III. Details on the exact capabilities of these systems are unknown, but it is believed that the Israeli missiles can reach Natanz. However, to travel that far, the missiles will have a limited warhead weight, probably less than 1000 pounds. It is doubtful that these warheads will be able to penetrate far enough underground to achieve the desired level of destruction. That points to an attack by the Israeli air force's American-made fighter-bomber aircraft as the most likely option. The Israelis have 25 F-15I Ra'am (Thunder) and about 30 F-16I Sufa (Storm) jets.
How will the aircraft fly from their bases in Israel to a target located 200 miles inside Iran? There are two realistic ways to get there – either through Saudi Arabia or Iraq, possibly even using Jordanian airspace as well. Either route is a one-way trip of about 1200 miles. Even though Turkey and Israel have had a defense agreement since 1996, using Turkish airspace is not likely politically and would require the attacking aircraft to fly over 1000 miles inside Iranian airspace. It is also doubtful that the Israelis would jeopardize operational security by consulting with the Turks.
The Saudi Arabia option. The strike aircraft depart southern Israel, enter Saudi airspace from the Gulf of ‘Aqabah or Jordan, fly 800 miles of Saudi airspace to the Persian Gulf and then 300 miles into Iran. Although the Israelis traversed Saudi airspace when they attacked the Iraqi facility in 1981, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have since significantly upgraded their air defense capabilities and share information with each other.
Since the Israeli air force does not operate stealth aircraft, there is a reasonable expectation that at some point the aircraft will be detected over Saudi Arabia, either by ground based radar or the AWACS airborne radar platforms. Whether Saudi defenses could - or would - be able to stop the Israelis is uncertain. Perhaps the Saudis would turn a blind eye and claim ignorance - after all, a nuclear-armed Iran is a potential threat to the Kingdom as well.
The Iraq option. The strike aircraft depart southern Israel, cross 300 to 400 miles of Saudi airspace or a combination of Jordanian and Saudi airspace, and enter Iraqi airspace as soon as possible, continue across 500 miles of Iraq to the Persian Gulf and then on to the target. Entering Iran from Iraqi airspace would create too much of political firestorm. As it is, the use of Iraqi airspace will require the cooperation of the United States. Although Iraq is a sovereign nation, its skies are controlled by the American military. That said, allowing Israeli aircraft to ingress from Iraq is likely out of the question.
Either of these options carries the risk that once the actual attack on the facility is made, the viability of the return route is in jeopardy – all forces in the area will be on alert. The planners may opt to go to the target one way and back home via another.
The limiting factor in Israeli planning is the great distance to the target. Can Israel’s fighter-bombers conduct this mission without refueling? Combat radius - the distance an aircraft can fly and return without refueling - is difficult to calculate, and depends on weapons payload, external fuel tanks, mission profile, etc. It is even more difficult when dealing with Israeli aircraft because they will not release performance data on their assets.
The best "guestimate" of the combat radius of the F-15I and F-16I, outfitted with conformal fuel tanks, two external wing tanks and a decent weapons load, is almost 1000 miles. Either of the two possible flight routes is about 200 miles further than that. To make up for the shortfall, the aircraft could be fitted with an additional external fuel tank, but this will require a reduction in the weapons load. Given the accuracy of the weapons in the Israeli inventory, that might not be problematic. However, if the aircraft are detected and intercepted, the pilots will have to jettison the tanks in order to engage their attackers. Dropping the tanks will prevent the aircraft from reaching their target.
Air refueling. This raises the question of air refueling? This is a limitation for the Israelis. While Israel has a large air force, its focus has been on the Arab countries that surround it. In recent years, it has sought the capability to project power against a target over 1000 miles away. To do this, Israel has acquired five B707 tanker aircraft. However, the tankers would have to refuel the fighters in hostile airspace. The B707 is a large unarmed aircraft and would be very vulnerable to air defenses.
Looking at the two scenarios, air refueling over Saudi Arabia would be very risky. It would have to be done at low altitude to evade detection and will probably be at night. Using Iraqi airspace will be somewhat less difficult as altitude will not be an issue.
Of course, the tankers would have to get to Iraqi airspace and back. The use of Turkish airspace for the tanker aircraft to enter Iraq is probably not an option for the same reasons that it is not an option for the fighters – political sensitivities on the part of the Turks and operational security considerations on the part of the Israelis. Another possibility is American cooperation – allow the Israelis to stage their tankers from an American air base in Iraq. These tankers could fly to Iraq though international airspace around the Arabian Peninsula and over the Persian Gulf. It would be too far for them to return to Israel without landing to refuel, otherwise the Israelis could refuel the fighters over the Gulf.
American participation? There are other possibilities, from allowing Israeli fighters to land and refuel at U.S.-controlled bases in Iraq, to having U.S. Air Force tankers refuel the Israeli aircraft over Iraq. A diplomatic nightmare, maybe, but certainly a military possibility.
Theoretically, the Israelis could do this, but at great risk of failure. If they decide to attack Natanz, they will have to inflict sufficient damage the first time - they probably will not be able to mount follow-on strikes at other facilities.
When all the analyses are done, there is only one military capable of the sustained widespread air operations required to eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons research program - the United States. Again, a diplomatic nightmare, but certainly a military possibility.
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March 17, 2006 |
Spring Break with John Edwards (Eric Martin, Hardblogger College All-Star)
As John Edwards spoke at dusk Wednesday to a group of about 600 students gathered in an outdoor hotel courtyard in downtown New Orleans, even the setting sun could not dim his obvious pride at the hope and determination on our faces. With a bounce in his step, Edwards thanked us for volunteering to spend Spring break clearing rotting debris from homes when we could have chosen instead to party all night and sleep all day in Cancun. He said our generation's sacrifice should set an example for all Americans.
Indeed, just one year ago the notion that thousands of college students would trade swim trunks and bikinis for construction helmets, gloves, goggles and sanitation suits would have been unthinkable. Then came Katrina. For students like me who will graduate college this Spring, the start of senior year in high school and college has been marked by 9/11 and the hurricane -- the greatest man-made and natural disasters in recent American experience.
Out of our feelings of helplessness and despair emerged a new youth consensus -- the belief that our generation can rebuild the world by our example of empathy and compassion. Edwards helped foment this energy during his university speaking tour this Fall. While I learned about this week's initiative through a friend's email, many students learned of the program from Edwards's personal appeals.
Our trip is just one of many making a difference. New Orleans is so overwhelmed with thousands of student volunteers from hundreds of campuses this week that most of our group is sleeping on the floor of a basketball arena 90 minutes away in Baton Rouge. We leave our accommodations at 6:00am each morning for the bus ride to our work site, where some of our tasks include throwing away long-spoiled food, scooping away sewage, fending off rats that have settled in with the flood waters, and helping strangers pick up the pieces of shattered lives. We plan to completely empty debris from 100 homes over the next two days.
I had my own personal inconvenience when the airline lost my sleeping bag, but helpful employees at a local hotel loaned me blankets and a pillow - a small reflection of the kindness and compassion blooming in the aftermath of tragedy. Those who think student motivation to heal and improve America is absent in my generation should take a trip to Louisiana. In his remarks before our training session, Senator Edwards told us "we are the leaders we have been waiting for." The thousands of students gathered in New Orleans this week couldn't agree more.
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4:37 PM ETHuckabee and the Blowfish? (Mark Murray, NBC News Political Reporter)
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has made the rounds here in Memphis, discussing Iraq, a possible White House bid, and the straw poll. But I had the exclusive opportunity to ask him about another pressing matter: his rock'n roll band's performance after the straw poll. Yes, that's right... While the other famous politician from Hope, Arkansas -- Bill Clinton -- plays sax, Huckabee plays bass guitar in a band called Capital Offense, which performs tonight at the conference from 9:00 pm ET to midnight, right after the straw poll. In an interview, Huckabee said the band, which consists of current and former aides, will play something for everyone -- Rolling Stones, Brooks & Dunn, and Elvis. “I hope they realize Republicans can have fun,” he said. And this isn't the first time Capital Offense has played in front of a large audience. Indeed, Huckabee and the gang have opened for Willie Nelson, the Charlie Daniels Band, and Grand Funk Railroad.
3:35 PM ETElvis in the House - (Shelby Poduch, Hardball Producer)
Someone I bumped into while on duck duty: the "Clothier to the King," Bernard Lansky.
Owner of the Lansky Brothers clothing store in the Peabody Hotel, Mr. "B," as he is affectionately known, is a local legend. 79 years old and feisty, he was recently honored with his own "Duck Feet" on The Peabody Duck Walk of Fame (Memphis's version of the Hollywood walk.)
He shared this story:
Before Elvis Presley made it to the big time, he worked as an usher at the local Loew's movie theater. He used to windown-shop at the Lansky Brothers clothing store downtown. One day he finally made his way into the store and bought a shirt for $3.95. The next week he bought another shirt. After that there was no stopping him. Beginning in the early 1950s, continuing through his film career in the 60s and into his concert touring years in the 70s, Elvis went to Lansky's for the special clothes that made him the King, including his famous combination of black and pink clothing and flipped up collars. Apparently, Elvis was worried that a regular collar would crush his duck-tail hair style. Soon everyone stopped by the shop asking for whatever pieces Elvis was wearing and other stars came looking for help with their own signature styles, including Jerry Lee Lewis, Johnny Cash, and B.B. King. Pretty unbelievable...
3:25 PM ET DNC proposal (Huma Zaidi, NBC News Researcher)
Washington D.C.: The closing hours of today's DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee hearing focused on some details of the proposed changes to the party's presidential nominating calendar in 2008.
Prominent DNC members Don Fowler and Harold Ickes both expressed concern that with this proposal, the calendar may become just as "frontloaded" (read: top-heavy) if not more so than in years past. Ickes said that the general election campaign starts so early that the whole system seems “senseless, goofy” and “out-of-whack.” His recommendation was to move the start of the nominating process back by at least two months. It currently begins in January.
States who might want to move up their nominating contests can apply to the DNC to do so before April 7. States must detail their racial, ethnic, regional/demographic and economic diversity to the panel.
The committee will submit its final proposal some time later this year and the full DNC may vote on it as early as the fall.
On a sidenote, Fowler responded to an article in this morning's Washington Post about how presidential candidates will need at least $100 million to become viable contenders. Fowler says as of right now he can only think of two Democrats who are able to do that.
The next meeting of the committee will be in New Orleans on April 20.
2:16 PM ET DNC meeting marked by confusion (Huma Zaidi, NBC News Researcher)
Washington D.C.: About 26 members of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee gathered on Capitol Hill this morning to discuss how to go about adopting and implementing a proposal to change the party's 2008 presidential nominating calendar.
Typically, Iowa and New Hampshire, who hold their nominating contests before anyone else, basically crown the party's nominee long before other states have even held their contests. The committee has been working for the past year or so to redesign its calendar so that a more geographically and demographically diverse range of states can hold their contests early and have a say in the outcome.
The meeting quickly became marked by frustration and confusion. The fireworks began when one committee member moved to take a vote to approve the proposal. That's when the committee's three most prominent members spoke up:
Don Fowler began by stating what was obvious to the press in the room -- that many of the committee members had no idea what they were voting on. The members had so many questions about the details of the proposal, yet the committee moved to take a vote on it, anyway. "This rush to judgment is unwise and unnecessary," Fowler said. He thought it was unbelievable that the committee would vote to pass something it didn't understand.
Harold Ickes agreed with Fowler, arguing that the political implications of the proposal are so profound that additional meetings should be held to discuss it. Ickes vociferously asked questions and made his displeasure clear to the panel.
Donna Brazile gave the morning's most passionate remarks when she said all states should be treated equally and that no state -- including Iowa and New Hampshire -- should be allowed to go before any other. Brazile said far too many states and constituents have been ignored for far too long. "I'm off the privilege notion now," Brazile said. She went on to say the process was about finding what's "fair" and "right" instead of maintaining decade-long traditions.
After receiving assurance from the committee co-chairs that the proposal was just a "framework" and that revisions could be made later, and asking a plethora of questions, the committee finally voted. All members except one, New Hampshire party chair Kathleen Sullivan, voted to pass the proposal in principal.
Sullivan has been lobbying long and hard to make sure New Hampshire doesn't lose its place as the first-in-the-nation primary. Sullivan voiced some concerns that the proposal would conflict with certain state laws that require a waiting period before another state can hold a nominating contest.
The scene in the room was interesting. The co-chairs looked annoyed. Some members chuckled quietly at the chaos. Most just looked bewildered.
The committee has broken for lunch and will resume later to discuss the details of the proposal.
1:23 PM ETDuck Watch: Day Two (Shelby Poduch, Hardball Producer)
It was a big Friday night in Memphis, and after a day full of SRLC happenings, the parties have started and one burning question still looms - What's going on with the ducks?
Turns out they were spending Friday night the same way as many of the conference goers: just chilling out.
My search took me to the roof of the historic hotel, to a place known as "The Royal Duck Palace." No, seriously, "The Royal Duck Palace."
All work and no play makes for boring ducks, and no one likes a boring duck, so when they’re not busy marching or making appearances in the lobby fountain, the five ducks hang out here at the Palace. (Note to self: remind MTV’s "Cribs" producers to stop by and check it out.) We’re talking wading pool with spouting duck fountain, green grassy romping area, an actual Duck Palace (think very large dollhouse,) not to mention a giant mural painted behind the Palace.
Unlike the unsavory characters Memphis natives Three 6 Mafia rap about, it’s not hard out here for a duck.
For those of you with Saturday night dinner parties tonight, here are a few more duck facts for those awkward lulls in conversation:
1. I mentioned earlier that the ducks only stick around for three months before a Peabody-imposed retirement. The reason is because after three months, the ducks are pretty much on to the way things work at the hotel - and have figured out how to get themselves into trouble. One example: The duck who got bored floating in the lobby fountain, jumped out and managed to walk all the way to the cab stand outside the hotel.
2. Slightly less ambitious ducks have been found sleeping up in the statue part of the lobby fountain, several feet about where they normally float.
3. The "Duckmaster" has regular conversations with the ducks (although we aren’t privy to the topics of discussion.)
4. Their favorite treat: lettuce.
5. Chris Matthews and his fellow honorary "Duckmasters" aren’t the only VIPs who have visited the ducks. Donald (Duck - not Trump) has also made an appearance.
Coming up ... You saw Chris with the "Duckmaster" on Hardball…I'll be with the Man in the Red Jacket (that would be the "Duckmaster" himself) later today. Stay tuned!
12:51 PM ETMormons for Romney (Tom Curry, MSNBC.com National Affairs Writer)
“I’m a Mormon. I’ll warn you in advance,” Barbara Breuer, a Memphis Republican told me Saturday when I struck up a conversation with her outside the main ballroom .
“There are a lot of us (Mormons) here. There’s several here that I know from the metro area and some of the small towns around.”
Breuer converted to Mormonism when she was 16 (she’s now middle-aged).
Wearing a Romney button on her jacket, she said the backers of the Massachusetts governor had started the weekend with a stockpile of 400 Romney buttons and had run out.
Why support Romney?
“Well, because we happen to believe that practicing Mormons are the best people in the world,” said Breuer, who said she has long been active in Republican politics in the Memphis area.
“I like his conservative ideas and I think he’s a charismatic individual,” she added.
She acknowledged that Romney’s Mormon faith would probably will be a hurdle to him securing the GOP presidential nomination in 2008.
“There’s an awful lot of misunderstanding about it,” she said, “I’ve been on both sides” as both a non-Mormon and a convert to the religion. “I know, but a lot of people don’t know what we stand for and believe.”
12:10 PM ETIs this about '06 or '08? (Elizabeth Wilner, NBC News Political Director)
Amidst all the speakers' talk of a need to focus on the midterm elections instead of 2008, one potential presidential candidate acknowledged that maybe all the contenders and reporters in attendance, and at least some of the delegates, are indeed thinking about the road to the White House. Gov. Mike Huckabee said it's "disingenuous" to suggest they aren't. "We look like complete fabricators" to insist that everyone's here to focus on the midterms, he said. Still, Huckabee stayed on-message in trying to keep expectations low for his performance in the straw poll. "I don't see this as a referendum" on his potential candidacy. But: "If I do real well, I'm sure I'll say this is the most important thing that ever happened," he joked.
10:03 AM ETThe flier (Elizabeth Wilner, NBC News Political Director)
The McCain camp's "write-in President Bush" campaign continues in advance of today's straw vote. A flier slipped under delegates' doors early this morning lists quotes from Republicans who have appeared at the conference -- arguably making it look as though they've endorsed the write-in effort. Those cited: Sen. Trent Lott, RNC chair Ken Mehlman, and Gov. Haley Barbour. All have spoken about the need to focus on the midterm elections ahead of 2008, as McCain did in his remarks last night. But Mehlman, at least, specifically declined to endorse the write-in effort when asked about it by reporters yesterday. Aides to other candidates privately suggest that McCain is trying to undermine the meaning of the straw vote for 2008 because he wasn't likely to win it, but the move also allows McCain to make a very public show of support for the President in front of a key audience -- and the flier contains the added incentive: "Support Our Troops!"
9:30 PM ETThe party of family values? (Mark Murray, NBC News Political Reporter)
Many of the speeches today in Memphis have made it abundantly clear that the Republican Party is the party of family values. But someone must not have sent the message to the people who prepared the media’s goodie bags. In the bag is a CD entitled “Top of the Stax: Twenty Greatest Hits.” Some of the songs are tunes like Otis Redding’s “Sittin’ On the Dock of the Bay.” But other songs on the CD are a bit risque—like Rufus Thomas’ “Do the Push and Pull, Part I, Johnnie Taylor’s “Cheaper to Keep Her” and “Who’s Making Love,” and Jean Knight’s “Mr. Big Stuff.”
8:15 PM ETCan you throw a football? (Brooke Brower, Hardball Producer)
After an hour in the exhibition hall full of Republican posters, trinkets, and enthusiastic conservatives of all ages, Senator George Allen finished a second radio interview and headed to the Peabody Hotel lobby for an interview on Hardball.
It took a while to make it through the throngs of people asking for pictures, autographs, and "just a minute" of the Virginian's time. Senator Bill Frist came into the exhibition hall just a little bit before Allen left and both maneuvered around without running into each other.
All the while, Allen was trailed (and lead) by a small troop of staff and advisers. Campaign consultant Chris LaCivita had temporary custody of the Allen team football. "If you travel with the senator, you better know how to catch and throw a football," LaCivita advised.
Finally making it to the inside of the Peabody's lobby, Allen schmoozed with dozens more well-wishers before plopping down in the make-up chair for Hardball.Newsweek's Howard Fineman chatted him up as he got ready to talk to Chris, and it was hard to notice the tall Allen amid the sea of conference goers in the lobby.
Allen did a few more interviews after Hardball with local and national television reporters. "I'm here to meet people," Allen said a few times when asked if he was thinking about 2008.His staff then huddled with him and decided he should head up to his room to take a quick break before going back to the exhibition hall for yet another round of interviews.
8:00 PM ETGeorge Allen - contender in '08? (Brooke Brower, Hardball Producer)
No matter how many times Senator George Allen said he is focused on winning his senate seat again in 2006, everyone talking to him was clearly thinking about 2008.
Not everyone was wearing a "George Allen for President" baseball cap, but a handful were among the dozens cheering him as he arrived in the exhibition hall at the Peabody Hotel.
"Where are you from?," he asked over and over again to starstruck fans.
Their answers sounded like a roll call of the states: Georgia, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Arizona, Tennessee, and so on.
Over the course of an hour, he must have shaken hundreds of hands from across the country. It was a taste of what 2008 could be like, but Allen assured supporters and reporters that right now it's about 2006.
"We've been married 20 years and this is how it's been for 20 years," said the senator's wife, Susan, with a smile.
7:30 PM ETMother and Fathers (Jeremy Bronson, Hardball Supervising Producer)
Some more news from the kickoff session this afternoon at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney began his speech with a song parody of Davy Crockett, King of the Wild Frontier ("Dr. Frist, King of the Wild Frontier!"). But his biggest applause line -- probably the loudest of the afternoon -- came after his full-frontal attack on gay marriage. "Marriage is primarily about the raising and nurturing of children...Every child in America has the right to a mother and a father." The 2004 gay marriage ballot initiative in Ohio helped George Bush rally his base in the final hours of his campaign. In the first post-Brokeback presidential election, will gay marriage stir similar passions this time around? Mitt Romney may soon find out.
7:20 PM ETThe politically obsessed (Tom Curry, MSNBC.com National Affairs Writer)
Virginia Sen. George Allen, who is slated to speak to the Memphis event Saturday morning, played down the significance of Saturday’s straw poll as he mixed some chatting with Southern Republicans in with some TV interviews.
“This is not even an intra-squad scrimmage,” he told reporters, using his characteristic sports imagery. “This is a pick up game. … It really doesn’t matter.”
Amused at the print reporters and TV camera crews clogging the lobby of the Peabody Hotel, Allen snorted, “Y’all are politically obsessed.”
6:36 PM ETVote for Bush? (Mark Murray, NBC News Political Reporter)
The political news that has dominated the conference so far -- at least for us political junkies -- is that Sen. John McCain will tell delegates tonight to vote for President Bush as a write-in candidate in tomorrow's Hotline straw poll, which possibly could throw a wrench in gauging the 2008 field here. But from this vantage point, it seems that the delegates are excited about personally weighing in on the 2008 race in the straw poll. For instance, as Sen. Bill Frist was chatting with bloggers and doing other interviews the in the exhibition hall this afternoon, an admirer approached the senator and told him: "I am looking forward to the election tomorrow," she said. Another delegate approached soon minutes later. "I am going to vote for you," he told Frist. "I hope you run for president."
5:30 PM ETSen. McCain - a minute please? (Huma Zaidi, NBC News Researcher)
and Lindsey Graham just arrived here in Memphis. The two arrived under the hot Memphis sun casually dressed and were greeted by a handful of supporters. Both were gracious and took photos with the fans before making their way into the hotel. We were interested in talking with McCain in more depth and wanted him to stop by the Hardball set, but the Senator declined our interview requests telling us his "people" do his thinking for him. McCain was trying to be funny, of course, but he was adamant that his people decide whether he had five minutes to stop by the set. He joked that he would come on if he could get the "full hour." We got as far as the elevator with McCain before he vanished.
4:53 PM ETClosed doors (Elizabeth Wilner, NBC News Political Director)
Memphis isn’t Washington, but some things stay the same: The conference’s “White House Update,” featuring briefings from three deputy assistants to the president, turns out to be closed to the media. When several reporters approached the doors to the hall to enter the session, not having been warned that the event is closed-press, volunteers politely refused to allow entry. When the reporters stood at the doorway, the volunteers shut the doors. Judging from the official schedule, the three Bush officials are scheduled to brief the delegates on politics, the economy and domestic policy (oddly, no one seemingly scheduled to talk about the war on terror). Maybe one or two of the several hundred delegates attending the “small” event (as one volunteer called it) will be willing to tell the now extra-curious press corps what was said.....
I spent about thirty minutes today shadowing Sen. Bill Frist around the Peabody Hotel as he took a walk-thru of the building. He met with volunteers, spoke with venders, took dozens of pictures, smiled endlessly and displayed some of that famous Southern charm. Frist also stopped in to see RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman give a speech in the ballroom.
As we walked around, women were falling over themselves to have their picture taken with the dapper doctor. Some of the SRLC volunteers told Frist he would be the next president. Frist smiled and took pictures with them, but never stopped to correct them or say he wasn't planning to run for the office. It seems that Frist has a lot of support here and that's not surprising since it is his home state. Of the 1800 delegates here this weekend, over 700 of them are from Tennessee alone.
But Frist is popular with the press as well. Reporters were eagerly trying to get a word in with the Senate Majority Leader. One reporter even offered to meet Frist in the gym so that he could interview him while they worked out. Talk about multi-tasking. Aside from the handful of security personnel and staffers that are a part of Frist's entourage, his wife, Karyn, and one of his three sons, Harrison are here with him. Frist and his wife seem very much in tune. They held hands for most of the time and Frist made sure she was never far away.
Frist speaks to the delegates tomorrow afternoon. He'll spend the rest of the day meeting and greeting people. Be sure to check him out on Hardball tomorrow.
Who says drinkin’ and politickin’ don’t mix—especially here in the South? It’s exactly 3:00pm Memphis time and the bar here in the lobby of the Peabody is packed with people sipping cosmopolitians, wine, beers, and mixed drinks. Which brings us to this question: Are the speeches so far that tedious?
2:52 PM ETDuck Watch - Day one (Shelby Poduch, Hardball Producer)
Fresh from my first experience with the world-famous Peabody Marching Ducks, let me tell you - they’re worth all the hype and then some.
Hardball’s own Chris Matthews had the honor of serving as “Duckmaster” of this morning’s march - something they take pretty seriously around here. The current “Duckmaster” was discovered after a nationwide search when he answered an ad posted in USA Today. Applications for the position had actually come in from as far away as Indonesia. Today he was joined by his wife and daughter as he coached Chris in the duties of a "Duckmaster." As a new member of this exclusive club, Chris is in good company. Other VIPs who have filled the position include The Duchess of Devonshire, John Mellencamp’s children and my personal favorite - Patrick Swayze.
To thank him for his services, Chris was presented with a little Peabody bling - a special edition duck-shaped pin from Tiffany's - along with a framed proclamation formally announcing his honor, a “Royal Duck” (actually a rubber ducky-style squeaky yellow duck) and - something I can’t wait to walk around the office with once we get back to DC - a fabulous cane topped with a golden duck.
But anyway, back to the ducks. Picture this…the beautiful lobby of the Peabody Hotel is filled with people, lined up along an Oscar-worthy red carpet, anxiously awaiting the arrival of the ducks. Camera flashes are bursting. And then…the elevator doors open…and out march (actually, they almost seem to be jogging) five ducks. The crowd goes wild. The drake (the male duck) leads the way, followed closely by four hens (the lady ducks) in "V" formation. All the way down the red carpet they trot, followed by our Mr. Matthews, with his “Duckmaster” cane. What a sight!
Here's a little more duck info:
The duck "teams" serve three-month tours of duty. After that, it's off to a special duck reserve where they live the good life for the rest of their duck years. While they're here, they are some hard workin' fowl, practicing their marches often - sometimes in empty banquet rooms at the hotel. And you'll never hear someone calling for "Fluffy" or "Quackers," since the ducks are never given names. They're considered wild animals by the people here at the Peabody, not pets.
More duck watching to follow. Until then - keep your political ducks in a row - check back to Hardblogger and MSNBC.com often and stay tuned to MSNBC for much more from Hardball in Memphis.
2:20 PM ETAnd the GOP nonimee for 2008 is ... (Bob Shrum)
It's all over but the conferences, the fundraising, the long, cold nights in Iowa and New Hampshire. McCain's it, the Republican nominee for President in 2008. The deal is already done for three reasons.
First, the Republicans always nominate who they're supposed to: the next in line, the structural frontrunner who has the name, the advantages in fundraising, and the sense that this is his turn. (So far, no hers need apply.) So they picked Vice President Nixon over Governor Rockefeller in 1960, even though the polls showed Rockefeller running a far stronger race against JFK. It was Nixon again in '68; after his kamikaze run for Governor of California, he'd spend years toiling in the GOP vineyards, trolling the rubber chicken circuit, refurbishing his image and burnishing his status of pre-eminence on national security. It was his turn again and so the "new Nixon" easily won the nomination, and then barely won the election. Ford held off Reagan's challenge in 1976 because Ford, however bumbling and befuddled, was already President; they were supposed to nominate him. Reagan in 1980, Bush the First in 1988, Dole in 1996: They were all next in line. Otherwise, why in the world would the Republicans have chosen a tired, lackluster Dole to run against Bill Clinton? Even Bush the second fit the pattern in 2000 - because of his name, the reassuring if only apparent pressure of his father's advisers, the aggrieved Republican impulse to reverse the defeat of 1992.
Now McCain's first in line. Like Nixon, Reagan, Bush the First, and Dole, he's run for President before and lost - but respectably. He's a national figure; Republicans haven't nominated a candidate who wasn't widely known two or three years before their convention since Wendell Wilkie. In McCain's case, endemic Republican behavior is reinforced not only by the fact of his political primogeniture, but also by the sense that he's more likely than some of his favored predecessors to go on to victory in the general election. This matters to a Republican Party increasingly fearful, reeling and even rebelling amidst the collapse of the Bush presidency.
Second, who else have they got? (Although even if they did, it might not matter; so strong is the power of presumption in the GOP process that even McCain, for all his popular appeal when he was the insurgent not the favorite in 2000, was ground down in a party determined to pick the second Bush.) There's no one to stop McCain now.
Giuliani has the name and his 9/11 halo; but he's pro-choice, and when his marriage broke up, he moved in with a gay couple. He flunks the social issues litmus test; McCain passes it, even if the religious right worries that he's a little soft and maybe more than a little angry at what they did to him in 2000. He'll reassure them; Giuliani can't. Rudolph Giuliani has about as much chance of being nominated by the GOP as Zell Miller does of being nominated by the Democrats. The fact that Giuliani is a no show at this weekend's Southern Republican gathering tells us how he'll show in the Republican Presidential field.
Bill Frist: destroyed by his ineptitude as the Senate Republican leader; incompetence is not the best recommendation for overcoming the ingrained Republican reference for the obvious favorite. Nor, for that matter, is incompetence a good recommendation for succeeding this George Bush. It's not clear that Frist is even a competent doctor following his quack diagnosis of Terri Schiavo on the Senate floor.
George Allen, Sam Brownback: too obscure, too implausible, too extreme. As a Democrat, my reaction is "bring 'em on." To paraphrase an old saying, we could beat these guys with a laundry ticket.
Chuck Hagel: slightly better known, but a redundant candidate, a McCain stand-in who can't win if McCain's standing.
Condoleeza Rice: won't run. Dick Cheney: Ditto.
So whenever you look at any of the alternatives, what you see is a McCain nomination.
The Bushies see it too: Mark McKinnon, Bush's media adviser, says he'll work for McCain, with a pro forma exception “if” Jeb Bush runs. McKinnon knows that won't happen for a simple reason: just what America wants - another Bush in the White House. But other Bush operatives, Republican funders and power brokers will follow McKinnon down the road to McCain.
The almost inevitable outcome is made even more inviting by a third factor. For Americans, 2008 will be a time for change - and to the electorate McCain looks like change. He was the anti-Bush in 2000; he's been a high-profile Bush opponent on issues like torture and global warming. But he helped rescue Bush's Presidency in 2004 by putting his arm around him and winking at the scurrilous attacks on John Kerry's military service, even though they echoed the smears of an earlier Bush campaign against McCain himself. So the Republicans can have their cake and eat it too: with McCain, they can give the voters "change" and give themselves the best chance to stay in power.
So McCain is not only the person they're supposed to choose; he is their best chance. I wouldn't hurt him by endorsing him; he's wrong on everything from health care, outsourcing and choice to Iraq and a foreign policy that could be even more unilateralist and bellicose than Bush's. The suddenly fashionable word in politics now is "narrative." But Democrats won't beat McCain on "narrative." Who has a better story than he does? We'll have to try to win the old-fashioned way -- on issues, penetrating the happy image that surrounds McCain and makes him appealing to independents and too many Democrats.
Where's Bob Dole when we need him? Why isn't the grand old man the one the Grand Old Party is supposed to nominate?
1:17 PM ETTwo sideshows at the Peabody (Jeremy Bronson, Hardball Supervising Producer)
We've just been walking around the bustling lobby of the Peabody Hotel, and we have two little sideshows to report. First, the Draft Condi for President movement is out and about. We chatted with a woman decked out in stickers and pins and hats pushing the case for a Condi run in 2008. We also picked up a magazine from their table called "The Black Republican." The cover has a smiling headshot of Condi with the title, "Most Powerful Woman in the World." Second, there's a group here pushing delegates to "write in President Bush" and "focus on 2006." One of the group's volunteers told me, "We don't want President Bush to become a lame duck. We have a president right now." See photos below...
It should be interesting to see which Republican candidates (if any) take direct or indirect jabs at the president this weekend. We'll keep you posted.
1:10 PM ETCan I have some pie? (Huma Zaidi, NBC News Researcher)
Sen. Bill Frist doesn't speak at the conference until tomorrow, but the Senate Majority Leader was at the Peabody early today where he apparently hosted a lunch. Dozens of friends packed a conference room on the third floor of the hotel, the food smelled delicious and there was a chorus of loud chatter echoing above the music. Most of the attendees were wearing blue stickers that said "Frist is my leader." Along with lunch, we saw them reel in four pies into the room. It's just past noon here in Memphis and we have yet to see our lunch. My guess is we won't be getting any pie.
11:50 AM ETA Lott sighting! (Mark Murray, NBC News Political Reporter)
Waiting at Reagan National Airport to board my flight to Memphis, I just spotted Sen. Trent Lott—with one aide in tow—at my gate. Ever the politician, Lott has been yacking it up with other soon-to-be passengers.
8:49 AM ETOn the road to Memphis (Elizabeth Wilner, NBC News Political Director)
On Northwest 946, the too-early direct flight from DC to Memphis: a bunch of groggy journalists, wider-awake campaign aides—and at least one football. One aide to Sen. George Allen toted the football under her arm through airport security. Allen chief of staff Dick Wadhams explained that the Senator (who happens to be the son of former Redskins coach George Allen) likes to bring a football with him to speeches and toss it around with the crowd. Spotted a few minutes later without the football, the aide said she’d “handed it off” to a colleague.
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9:30 p.m. ET
Hello from the Peabody hotel in Memphis! (David Shuster, Hardball correspondent)
Team Hardball is officially on the ground now at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference! Producers Ann Klenk, Jeremy Bronson, and yours truly arrived just a short time ago (the rest of our gang arrives tonight and early tomorrow) ... and already, there is plenty to blog about.
Just a few minutes ago, just outside the media check-in center, I ran into John Weaver, political director for John McCain. I got to know Weaver et al while covering the 2000 McCain presidential campaign. Anyway, McCain’s nickname for Weaver is “Sunny” because the guy always seems to look and sound depressed. (He is not.) But I chuckled when I saw “Sunny,” because he has the remnants of a black eye from some type of accident. Anyway, Weaver is the Karl Rove of team McCain... and his presence here is yet another sign that McCain (who speaks here friday night) is taking this republican gathering quite seriously.
Organizers of this GOP event expect more than 2,000 republican activists, organizers, and
party officials to attend. There are a wide variety of speakers, including JC Watts, Lousiana Senator David Vitter, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and etc. But, the speakers who will draw the most attention are those organizing for a possible 2008 presidential run: McCain, Massachussetts Governor Mitt Romney, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Senator George Allen, Senator Bill Frist, and Senator Sam Brownback.
The program we received this week said that each speaker was going to be introduced by “The Voice of God.” At first, we were a little startled and wondered if there was some sort of religious theme that we were missing. Kevin Phillips, who has helped organize the event, laughed when we called him about it and said it was his own reference to the voice that will introduce people to the podium. The voice will be of an announcer the audience will not see... so, Kevin jokingly referred to that “announcement” as the “voice of God.” If the speakers want to talk about God, that will be up to them... but I hear the announcer is not a household name. Okay, okay, enough of the play on words.
By the way, the scene at Reagan National airport this morning was memorable. When I was checking in, I saw former Clinton transportation secretary Rodney Slater fiddling around with the automatic check-in kiosk. (Slater, from Arkansas, was on our flight to Memphis and flew on to Little Rock.) Just 5 years ago the guy had government planes to ferry him everywhere... now he has to get his ticket printed just like the rest of us. A short time later, I joked with Slater about his status... and he laughed as he told me that while the TSA agents recognized him as he walked through the metal detector, they also informed him, “Sorry Mr. Secretary, but you have matched our profile and we will need to do a secondary check.” Let that be a lesson... former cabinet secretary or not, if you buy a ticket at the last minute, and if it is one way, you are likely to hit the “profile” and require additional screening.
Here in Memphis, the fun will get underway in a couple of hours. The activists and organizers are starting to arrive and there is already quite a “buzz” over the start of the 2008 campaign. This event is considered the “premiere” event this year for the GOP’s grassroots activists. And given that this is a time when possible presidential candidates are trying to make impressions, get organized, and sign on state directors and etc. this is an important event in the world of presidential campaign politics.
The Peabody hotel is a glorious landmark in the heart of downtown Memphis. Hardball has live shows from the lobby tomorrow at 5pm and 7pm (with a repeat at 11pm.)
Chris Matthews will also have some “web only” broadcasts over the weekend. Plus, we will be filing reports this weekend for Nightly News and the Today show. Oh, and did I mention the blogs? The entire hardball/NBC News political gang will be contributing over the next few days. We will keep you posted on all the comings/goings... and we will be giving you some insights on the straw poll results that will be announced saturday night.
Comments? Questions? [email protected]
9:00 p.m. ET
Magnetic appeal (Jeremy Bronson, Hardball Supervising Producer)
Greetings from Memphis! The Hardball team is here at the famous Peabody Hotel getting set for our big, blowout campaign weekend. This is big. Really big. But first, some fun from the nearby Marriott Hotel, where most of our staff is staying.
Here it is. The Southern Republican Leadership Conference has a welcome table in the lobby with schedules and that sort of thing. BUT…there are also refrigerator magnets for the taking. They all have photos of George Bush with accompanying captions. Here’s a sampling:
“I’m tired of playin’ President. Is it Jeb’s turn yet?”
“Okay, this time Condi and I are the cowboys. Cheney and Rumsfeld – you’re the Indians."
“Put me on your fridge or the terrorists win.”
Not the type of party favor you’d expect to find at an SRLC welcome table, but the table greeter assures Hardball’s David Shuster that she didn’t put out the magnets to make fun of George Bush in any way.
8:30 p.m. ET
Memphis quietly brimming with excitement (Huma Zaidi, NBC News Researcher)
The sun is just starting to shine here in Memphis. When we first arrived here early this afternoon Mother Nature was having her way with the River City and blanketing it in rain. Just hours before the Southern Republican Leadership Conference is expected to kick-off, the Peabody Hotel, where the conference will take place, is quietly brimming with excitement. However, because of the nasty weather and subsequent travel delays, the crowds here now are smaller than some might have expected. Right now, there is a handful of media in the press center and SRLC volunteers are manning the hallways in their red polo shirts looking for something to do and someone to help.
I made my way downstairs to the basement of the hotel where they've set up an exhibition center for vendors to display various goods including signs, buttons and pictures. One vendor I talked to, Don Little, woke up at 4:00 am this morning to travel here from Little Rock, Arkansas. Don owns a company called Success Classics, Inc., which sells beautifully framed pictures of Republican presidents. This weekend, he'll be selling some of those pictures in a silent auction. There were two interesting photographs that caught my eye. One was a picture of former President Ronald Reagan in 1987 standing in front of Brandenburg Gate in what was then West Berlin, Germany. It was the exact place where Reagan gave his "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" speech. The frame includes a small piece of the Berlin Wall. The bidding for that item starts at $350. Apparently, pieces of the Berlin Wall are now a rare find, Don told me. Don said they used to be easy to find but he searched the entire country and even on EBay to sell one in Memphis. He actually ended up finding a little piece right in his own backyard. Don saw a local listing in Little Rock from a man who had inherited a large portion of the wall from his uncle and was selling pieces of it in the yellow pages.
Jonathan Alcox who owns a company called Republican Market in Orlando, Florida is also here selling buttons and other knick-knacks. The buttons are... well, interesting to say the least. One has a picture of Monica Lewinsky that reads "I'm voting Republican... The Democrats left a bad taste in my mouth." Eh-hem. Another button has a rather silly picture of Sen. Hillary Clinton with her mouth wide-open that reads "Somewhere in Arkansas, a village is missing their idiot." I was surprised to see the next button on Jonathan's table, especially since he is a Republican. There's a picture of Reagan and Bush with cowboy hats on that reads "My heroes have always been cowboys." Jonathan told me that button was made before Brokeback Mountain!
Well, I should run because the crowds are gathering for the famous Peabody Hotel's ducks, who are making their daily march back to their hotel suite! You'll be seeing much more of the ducks and their famous march on MSNBC this weekend!
8:00 p.m. ET
The Memphis cattle show (Pat Buchanan)
The Memphis conclave of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference represents the best opportunity to date for the national press to handicap the GOP field for 2008. The Boys on the Bus will be there.
Memphis is also the last opportunity pre-2006 for any Republican who would be president to show the national press where and how he differs from and with John McCain and George W. Bush.
True to form, the GOP establishment black-listed Tom Tancredo, refusing to invite the Colorado Congressman who is one of the hottest names in national politics for his leadership on the hottest of domestic issues: immigration and border security. The party will get a black eye for putting on public display once again its country-club, “He’s-really-not-one-of-us” mindset.
In presidential politics, there are several ways a challenger can emerge and overtake a front-runner. First is the JFK route, charisma. The second is to emerge as the champion on an issue where a great movement agrees with you: Goldwater and anti-communism in 1964, McGovern and anti-Vietnam in 1972. The failing of cause candidates, dating to William Jennings Bryan, is that they are almost always too hot and polarizing for the general population.
What, or who, to look for at Memphis? Which of the candidates shows A) charisma, B) conservative convictions, and C), a capacity to communicate. Who appears to have organized for the event with a host of supporters? As it is being held in Tennessee, this had better be Frist. Finally, who, if anyone, will break with Bush and McCain on the issues of immigration and Iraq?
The GOP is today a house divided: on Big Government, Iraq, war on Iran, immigration, trade, the Dubai ports deal. If McCain runs as the heir apparent who will continue the Bush foreign policy and the Bush amnesty-guest worker immigration policy, the way to beat him is to take him on by name. A candidate in Memphis must be respectful of the president, he must not offend the party leaders, but if he wants to win, he ought to plant his flag on another hill than the one Bush and McCain currently occupy. There is no room there. But the candidates coming to Memphis don’t look like risk-takers or high rollers.
Who has the most to lose in Memphis? Frist, if he does not shine in his home state, and possibly George Allen. As the designated front-runner for the role of the leading conservative, it is he who has to be shouldered aside, if anyone else is to be in the finals.
Comments? Email [email protected]
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A greenhouse for women's dreams (Chris Matthews)
Comments? Email [email protected]
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Transcending world politics (Kemper Ohlmeyer)
Wouldn’t it be great if the Olympic Games completely transcended world politics?
Well, don’t expect it any time soon. The Games have always been about much more than just athletic greatness. In 1936, Adolph Hitler tried to use the Olympics to prove Aryan superiority, a wish that came crashing down when sprinter and long-jumper African-American Jesse Owens scored four gold medals. And American.-Soviet relations have played out on the Olympic field for decades. The United States boycotted the games in 1980, and the Soviet Union boycotted them in 1984. In 1972, nine Israeli athletes were kidnapped from the Olympic Village in Munich and subsequently executed.
At the Opening ceremonies this year, International Olympic Committee President Jacque Rogge gave a stirring call for peace. But is that enough? Yoko Ono and Peter Gabriel called for the world to imagine peace and imagine there are no countries. But perhaps a strong, center-stage condemnation of violent politics, hate, and war would have delivered a much more powerful message.
Here’s hoping that next time around, we’ll get to hear speakers or performers at the Olympics who can pass on that word to the entire world.
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