With his wide-brimmed safari hat, his modest ranch and his beloved cattle, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni was once hailed as part of a new generation of African leaders, a beacon of hope on a continent where rulers tended to be military tyrants and high-rolling dictators despised and feared by their own citizens.
African leaders have had such a habit of clinging to power that when the folksy-talking Museveni proclaimed himself a "man of the people," and promised Ugandans that "No African leader should stay in office more than 10 years," he was cheered. The West responded, too, pouring millions in donor aid into the East African nation. And everyone from President Bill Clinton to South Africa's former president Nelson Mandela lauded Uganda as the continent's success story. For all of Africa's woes, it was thought, Uganda was going to be different.
After 20 years in power, however, Museveni changed both his mind and the constitution. With the term limits now gone, he says he hopes to stay in power until 2013, a total of 27 years.
Explaining why he wants Ugandans to return him to power in elections to be held on Thursday, Museveni, 62, has said in campaign rallies, "You don't just tell the freedom fighter to go like you are chasing a chicken thief out of the house. A doctor does not leave when a patient is still sick."
While this is the country's first multiparty election in decades, Museveni's decision to jail Kizza Besigye, 50, his main opponent — who just recently was released on bail to campaign — has some Ugandans worried that their president has become just another "big man" ruler. They say Museveni's power to change Uganda's central body of laws sends a disturbing message to people in other parts of Africa struggling to dislodge leaders who don't want to leave.
King or president?
Already, President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria, departing chairman of the African Union, has said he won't rule out altering the constitution in his country, Africa's most populous nation, in order to run for a third term in 2007.
"If Museveni stays in power, Ugandans can call him king, not president. And what will the rest of Africa think?," said Betty Brenda Nassuha, 19, a college student who text-messaged election news to her friends. "Let's talk frankly: Why can't we try someone else? He's the only leader I've known my entire life."
Museveni is one of a string of African leaders once romanced by the West but now accused by opponents and human rights activists of increasingly despotic behavior. They include Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, who arrested political opposition leaders and had police fire into crowds protesting over allegations of rigged elections, leaving 80 dead; President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, who jailed 17 journalists and dozens of government critics; and President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, where opposition leaders were accused of treason as elections approached.
Museveni's defenders say he has proved himself to be a benevolent leader, pulling Uganda out of decades of ruinous dictatorships of Idi Amin and Milton Obote, improving the economy and launching one of the first and most vibrant campaigns to fight HIV/AIDS, which has been hailed as a model on the continent.
"If the man is good, we in Africa can keep him. He's solving our problems. Why trouble ourselves with uncertainty?" said Robert Kabushenga, a government spokesman, who pointed to a photo montage of Museveni surrounded by clapping supporters. "Why must we discuss longevity as an issue on its own? Maybe this is African-style democracy."
'No one is paying attention'
Uganda's civil society leaders disagree. They say term limits are important to the success of any nation, and argue that there has been too much emphasis by U.S. and other governments on courting African personalities in young democracies rather than building strong democratic institutions such as courts, a constitution, a free press and a thriving civil society.
The critics also said the international community should have been more focused on finding solutions to the country's brutal 20-year war in the north, where a crusade by a cult-like militia has driven more than 1.6 million people off their farms and left tens of thousands dead. The militia has become notorious for kidnapping children into slavery and mutilating civilians.
"The world has been hoodwinked. This has turned into a disaster, and no one is paying attention," said Peter Owiny Goduzu, the independent mayor of Lira, a northern town where 200,000 people are surviving on donated food in overcrowded refugee camps. "Nelson Mandela left office. Imagine what Americans would think if President Bush changed the constitution and wanted to stay on? Can't we try some fresh ideas, ever?"
The latest public opinion polls put Museveni ahead of the five other candidates with 47 percent support. Besigye, his closest rival, has 36 percent, according to the country's independent Monitor newspaper.
There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a simple majority.
In interviews, Ugandans expressed views that point to a generational and class divide. Younger and more middle-class urban Ugandans tend to find the idea of an African ruler for life outdated and patronizing.
Even those who have long praised Museveni for his example-setting leadership in the fight against HIV wonder if change might be good for a country's health.
"Why must he condescend to Africans in this way?" asked Geraldine Stella Nalugwa, project manager of a sexual health program. "Yes, he was wonderful on AIDS and the economy. But we're fearing he may be our leader until God himself removes him from State House."
Memories of Amin still fresh
Members of Uganda's older farming generation appear to be influenced more by deep memories of the brutal years of Amin and his henchmen, and express fear about voting for anyone else. Nearly every Ugandan has a family member who was jailed, tortured or killed during the Amin dictatorship. Good leaders, including village chiefs, tend to rule for life in Africa, they say, so why not Museveni, whom they call "father."
"Whether Besigye is a good man or a bad man, I don't even need to know," said Emmanuel Rutakyengy, 45, chairman of the country's rural-based Council for Disabilities, which includes those wounded during previous governments. "My father was whisked away when I was in third grade by Amin. I am sticking to the man I know and love. Whoever doesn't is a risk-taker who is just mad."
Museveni's campaign has effectively capitalized on that culture of fear. The state-run newspaper has been carrying a special feature detailing the horrific crimes of Amin, and Museveni's campaign posters read: "A nation is not a trial-and-error map. You cannot play with the achievements of the last 20 years."
Besigye's campaign, with the Forum for Democratic Change party, has been vocal and filled of vague promises, but is disorganized. It was further disrupted when he was locked inside Kampala's maximum-security prison. He was not released until Jan. 2 and since then has been in and out of court 27 times on a long list of charges that include treason, rape and terrorism, all of which he says are "totally untrue and politically motivated."
Museveni gathered 20,000 cheering and dancing supporters for a day-long final rally Tuesday in the capital. Young motorcycle drivers waved likenesses of Museveni and were given free fuel to speed through the streets singing songs of praise for Museveni's Movement Party.
Besigye canceled his final rally, fearing violence. On Monday, riot police tear-gassed a rally of Besigye supporters. At least three people were shot dead last week by a military lieutenant who opened fire into a crowd of Besigye supporters in the capital who were throwing rocks at his car.
Meanwhile, Ugandans who have never seen a peaceful change of power are so jittery over vote tampering that political parties and citizen groups are recruiting their own "youth brigades," who are armed with sticks and rocks to guard against rigging at the polls.
"There's a history of bullets. Not the ballot," said Esther Namugawe, 23. "No one is sure if either of these men will deal with defeat."
