Canada loses its measles elimination status. Will the U.S. be next?

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The virus has been spreading for nearly a year in the U.S. — a key factor in determining whether a country loses its measles elimination status.
Canada set to lose measles elimination status after nearly three decades
Measles warning signs at the Taber Health Centre in Alberta, Canada, in October.Ahmed Zakot / REUTERS

Canada has lost its measles elimination status, the country’s Public Health Agency announced Monday. It’s the first country in the Americas to do so since the pandemic, and could serve as a warning sign for others.

There are multiple criteria for losing an official measles elimination status, including declines in vaccination rates. The most significant factor is the ongoing spread of the same strain of the virus for a full year.

Canada’s outbreak started in October 2024 in New Brunswick, a province on the country’s eastern seaboard. As of Monday, Canada’s health officials had tallied 5,138 measles cases since the outbreak began. Two babies, infected in utero, were born pre-term and died.

Despite “great efforts” made by Canadian health officials, “the country has lost its measles elimination status and is now considered endemic for the disease,” Jarbas Barbosa, the head of the Pan American Health Organization, said during a media briefing Monday.

“This loss represents a setback, of course, but it is also reversible,” Barbosa said.

Canadian health officials will now have to come up with a plan to get back on track, including improving vaccination rates and “enabling better overall surveillance efforts,” the country's public health agency said in a statement.

The country eliminated measles in 1998, two years before the U.S.

The spread of measles in the Americas is not limited to Canada. As of last week, PAHO officials reported that there’ve been 12,593 confirmed measles cases across the entire region, which encompasses North, Central and South America — 30 times the number reported last year.

The vast majority of 2025 cases — 95% — have been in Canada, Mexico and the U.S., and the latter two countries could soon also lose their measles elimination status.

In Mexico, nearly 4,000 cases have been reported since February. Ongoing spread in the state of Chihuahua, located in the northwestern part of the country, accounts for 93% of the country’s outbreak. Twenty-three people have died.

In the U.S., an outbreak that began in January continues to spread across the country.

The outbreak started in West Texas and stretched into New Mexico. At least 862 people — mostly in Texas — were infected. Three people died. Two were little girls who lived in the epicenter of the outbreak, Gaines County, Texas.

Though cases have subsided in West Texas, the virus has continued to spread. Forty-one states have reported cases. As of last week, 1,681 measles cases had been confirmed in the U.S. in 2025, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the most in more than 30 years.

In Utah and Arizona, an outbreak concentrated in a close-knit community that straddles the border between the states is nearing 200 cases.

In South Carolina, 38 cases have been reported in the northwestern part of the state since July.

The outbreaks have occurred as vaccination rates have declined steadily in the U.S.

A months-long NBC News investigation revealed that since 2019, 77% of counties and jurisdictions have reported declines in the number of kids getting routine childhood vaccinations like the measles-mumps-rubella shots. Two are recommended.

Vaccination coverage for both MMR doses across countries in the PAHO region averaged 79% last year, according to the group.

Measles is the most contagious virus known on the planet. The virus can linger in the air for up to two hours after an infected person leaves the room. Anyone in that room who hasn’t been vaccinated against measles will likely get sick.

Who determines a nation’s measles elimination status?

The PAHO, part of the World Health Organization, determines whether a country in North, South or Central America has maintained or lost its elimination status.

Elimination means that a virus has stopped spreading in a specific country or region. Only one virus — smallpox — has been eradicated, meaning that it’s been wiped out worldwide.

On a technical level, when one country in the Americas loses its status, the region as a whole is deemed to have lost its elimination status. Canada is the only country in the region, however, that’s been specifically called out for its year-plus measles spread.

Measles is nowhere near being eradicated. Even with Canada losing its measles elimination status, the region of the Americas accounts for just 7.5% of cases globally, Daniel Salas, an immunization expert with PAHO, said during a media briefing Monday. Most are in the Middle East and South Asia.

In 2019, PAHO established a panel of independent experts, called the Regional Verification Commission, to do an annual review of how countries are able to control measles spread.

The panel met last week in Mexico City to analyze the latest measles data submitted from countries with active outbreaks through October.

A PAHO spokesman said the group could not confirm whether its independent committee will meet again in January to discuss measles spread in the U.S.

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