Inside the numbers: Election interest data shows Democrats have work to do

Our latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had plenty of numbers to cheer Democrats up, including a 10-point advantage on the generic ballot and a 16-point cushion over GOP voters when it comes to having a high level of interest in the November election. 

But there may also be a few warning signs that some parts of the Democratic coalition as a whole aren't as fired up about midterms as the national narrative might suggest — at least not yet. 

While Democrats, and particularly Democratic women, are among the groups most likely to express high interest in the election, seniors remain the most likely group to say they're extremely focused on the outcome. Sixty-seven percent of seniors rate their interest in the midterms at the highest level — comparable to levels of interest from older voters in the 2010 and 2014 cycles that saw Republicans regaining control of Congress. 

But the youngest voters in the country, at least so far, aren't showing the levels of engagement seen in the last Democratic wave. Just 30 percent of voters under 35 rank their interest in the midterms at either a nine or a 10 out of 10. That's compared to 39 percent who said the same in October 2006, the last time a Democratic wave swept the nation in a midterm year. 

And despite the publicity focused on Donald Trump's immigration policy, Latino voters are significantly less engaged now than they were during the 2006 election as well. Just 43 percent of Latino voters say they have high interest in the election, compared to 62 percent who said the same before the 2006 election. 

Comparing June data now to October numbers in 2010 may be a bit uncharitable, with almost five months left to go for both parties to motivate their constituencies. And Democrats can be encouraged at high levels of engagement from college-educated whites, a swathe of high-propensity voters who have largely recoiled from Trumpism.

But it's still evidence that — despite numbers that look hopeful for Democrats overall — they still have a ways to go to motivate their voters, particularly those who seldom come out to vote in midterm years. 

 

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