President Donald Trump’s suspended tariffs on many goods from Canada and Mexico are set to take hold April 2, with more import taxes on other products and countries coming soon. That means consumers may start to see price hikes at the grocery store within weeks, especially for some of the least shelf-stable items.
Imports make up an increasing share of the fresh produce sold in the United States — around 60% of fruits and 40% of vegetables, according to 2023 data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Trump has hit China with 20% higher tariffs than those already in force. That country, Mexico and Canada together produce over 75% of American vegetable imports.
The levies are likely to hit several staples in shoppers’ grocery carts, an NBC News analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data found, from berries to avocados to potatoes. The most affected items will be those that are largely sourced from Mexico, Canada or China.
For instance, the U.S. imports 100% of its fresh mangoes and limes, USDA data shows. Mexico supplies about 60% of the guavas and mangoes sold in the U.S. and about 72% of lemons and limes. The U.S. also imports high levels of avocados (91.9% are imported) and raspberries (91.4% are imported), and over 90% of both products’ imported stocks come from Mexico.
Items like frozen fish filets from China and lobster and pork from Canada could also be heavily affected, census data shows.
Some larger grocery chains may be able to absorb costs or reconfigure their supply chains, said Jenny Zegler, the director of food and drink at market research firm Mintel, but smaller ones may struggle. She identified protein, produce and dairy from China, Canada and Mexico as categories that will likely become more expensive.
Zegler pointed out that even well-off consumers have been getting more creative with their grocery shopping to handle inflation, including before Trump returned to office. Many are opting for cheaper retailers like Aldi or Walmart, and spreading out their shopping between their usual grocery store, discount options and online delivery services, she said.
A Mintel report last year found 26% of U.S. grocery shoppers had recently switched their primary grocer, with 54% of adults making compromises in their food and beverage choices due to higher costs. Tariffs would pile on more.
“It’s another price pressure at a point that is essential for consumers,” Zegler said. “We can cut back on our groceries, but we can’t not buy them.”
Consumers looking to get around tariffs can sometimes consider alternative products — like canned fruit instead of fresh fruit, Zegler said. She also recommended checking out local options at farmers markets, where prices for some items may become increasingly competitive with imported ones’, and exploring generic brands. She also said some households could opt to cut back on certain ingredients altogether if prices spike and stay elevated.
“We do have a resilience as a consumer base, and so maybe it’s just paying a little bit more attention,” she said. “Being willing to change those formats or those suppliers, maybe you discover something new.”
