Oil and gas prices rose Monday after an “energy ceasefire” announced by President Donald Trump on Sunday failed to gain traction.
Brent crude oil jumped 2% to almost $108 per barrel and U.S. crude oil rose more than 2% to about $94. Meanwhile, diesel futures fully erased a small drop they saw last week.
Just weeks out from the Nov. 3 midterm elections, the price pressures are mounting. Republicans face a steep climb to maintain their majorities in Congress, and voters across the country cite high gas prices as a key issue affecting their votes.
The average nationwide price of diesel fuel Monday was $6.26 per gallon, nearly 80% higher than it had been at the start of the year, according to AAA data.
The rising prices Monday came less than 24 hours after Trump declared that a ceasefire had been agreed to.
“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Shortly after the president’s post, Russia renewed strikes against Ukrainian energy assets.
Pressed by reporters Monday as to why neither the Kremlin nor Kyiv had firmly committed to his ceasefire, Trump indicated that he knew when he made the announcement on Sunday that he did not yet have a commitment from either side.
“They agreed, you know why? Because I said ‘You agree,” Trump told reporters at the White House. As for getting Russian President Vladimir Putin to commit, Trump said, “We’re going to see what happens.”
Asked if he was aware that Russia had already violated the ceasefire Trump had announced, the president replied, “I’m not sure about that,” before claiming there had been “violations on both sides.”
Ceasefire déjà vu
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine learned about Trump’s ceasefire from media reports and was given no advance warning. He reiterated his position that Ukraine was open to an agreement not to target enemy energy infrastructure as long as Moscow agrees to it, too.
In the meantime, Russia continued with “glide bomb strikes and strikes on our energy infrastructure,” Zelenskyy said Monday, noting that a power plant in Kharkiv had recently been attacked.
“Ukraine has proposed many de-escalatory steps. Putin had one answer to all of them — ‘nyet,’” Zelenskyy said, using the Russian word for “no.”
The Kremlin on Monday neither confirmed nor denied having agreed to a deal.
Trump’s Sunday announcement closely mirrored a similar post he made in September, when he announced that “Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise!”
There, too, Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s participation hinged on Russia’s agreement to comply, which never came. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian strikes on the other’s energy assets slowed down in September.
Trump’s deal with Putin
The dubious ceasefire Trump declared over the weekend followed a stunning announcement Friday in which the president said Russia would supply millions of barrels of diesel “to the American and Global Marketplace.”
The announcement came after a phone call Friday between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that reportedly lasted over an hour.
Trump said the deal with Putin would “immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace.” That would translate into about 2.25 million barrels of diesel, or less diesel than the United States uses in just one day.
Further details and logistics of Russia’s plan had yet to be announced Monday.
In addition to the Russia deal, Trump has pressured G7 allies to release more diesel fuel supplies in recent days and lifted domestic restrictions on an off-road variety of diesel.
In order to clear a legal path for the diesel deal, the Treasury Department announced a six-month suspension of the fuel sanctions imposed on the Kremlin in 2022 for its illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials, European allies and some U.S. lawmakers were aghast at the deal and the U.S. decision to unilaterally ease Russia sanctions.
Trump defended the deal Monday, calling it “the right choice for the American People.”
Trump also said more diesel fuel would be made available “within a short period of time,” if Russia’s refineries could produce it.
Questions about Russia’s capacity
Yet experts are highly skeptical that there will be any significant resumption of Russian diesel exports in the near term.
Due to Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, refiners that produce oil, gas and diesel have suffered heavy damage.
“Reported gasoline output is down by 20% compared with 2025 levels, while diesel production is estimated to have fallen by nearly 30%, prompting the government to restrict fuel exports to protect domestic supplies,” analysts at the International Energy Agency wrote in a September report.
For weeks, Trump has focused on the price of diesel fuel, which began rising as a result of the Iran war that the U.S. and Israel launched in February.
In July, escalations in the Russia-Ukraine war began adding to the pressure on diesel prices.
As Ukrainian drones systematically targeted Russian energy assets, the Kremlin responded by restricting diesel exports in order to preserve its supply for domestic use.
Until then, Russia had been one of the world’s top exporters of refined oil products, which include diesel fuel.
Russia said Friday that it would lift some of its export restrictions in order to accommodate the deal with Trump. But it was unclear how fast that would happen.
