Oil prices whipsaw as markets weigh Middle East turmoil against uncertain demand

Oil prices seesawed Tuesday as energy markets weighed fresh Middle East turmoil against weaker-than-expected economic data.

After having jumped by as much as 5%, U.S. crude prices closed down 2%, at less than $102 a barrel. International Brent crude prices swung between a low of around $105 a barrel and a high of nearly $112.

Initially, there were several factors pushing up the cost of crude, which later gave way to forces pushing it lower. During the past two weeks, at least 18 ⁠vessels have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the ship-tracking group Kpler said in a report Monday.

The cost of chartering a large tanker vessel to transport oil through the strait has quadrupled since September as a result. Much of that increase is a risk premium covering the price of increasing safety for vessel crews and the cost of insurance.

The higher cost of transport has outweighed the recent bump in supply from a growing number of ships moving through the strait, which would otherwise help push prices back down.

Iranian attacks on ships have also prompted investor speculation that the Trump administration will be likelier to escalate action against Iran after the November midterm elections.

For a brief moment, conflicting reports Tuesday about whether the U.S. and Iran were engaged in active negotiations to de-escalate the conflict swept through energy markets, sending prices lower.

Rumors of an imminent deal spread online around midday, but an unnamed Arab diplomat later told Bloomberg News they were “wrong.” A top Iranian official also said his country was not proposing anything new to the U.S. or its intermediaries.

Investors have been quick to send oil prices lower when any talk of a deal that could ease tensions in the region comes up.

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Also sending the price of oil tumbling Tuesday was fresh housing data.

Permits for future home construction tumbled to a nearly four-year low last month, while U.S. pending home sales plunged 7%. That raised the prospect for traders of a broader economic slowdown and a drop in consumer demand.

“The ongoing contraction in the housing sector is set to deepen with 30-year mortgage rates now reaching 7.5%,” analysts with Citi said in a note Tuesday.

Rising costs — especially high gas prices — have become a major issue for voters in the midterms, in which Republicans face dwindling odds of maintaining their control of Congress.

A recent NBC News poll found that 67% of U.S. adults believe gas prices are a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem. A majority also said current economic conditions have caused them to change their spending habits.

Average U.S. gasoline prices have started off the week lower, at $4.28 a gallon. At that pace, the national average price of unleaded could be headed for its lowest level in a month.