Six months into President Donald Trump’s unprecedented gambit to impose sizable tariffs on imports, U.S. consumers are already shouldering as much as 55% of their costs, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs analysts.
And with new tariffs most likely on the way, the cost burden could rise even higher, they said.
The findings, released Sunday, suggest U.S. consumers will continue to struggle with high prices — which Trump had promised to address in the run-up to his re-election. While inflation rates have come down from the post-Covid peak, they have remained stuck above levels economists consider healthy, causing consumers and businesses alike to continue to report feeling burdened by price increases.
Over the past six months, Trump has imposed tariffs on copper, steel, aluminum and some automobiles and auto parts. He has also levied country-specific tariff rates of as much as 28% on China and 16% on much of the rest of the world, according to the Yale Budget Lab.
Partly as a result, consumer prices tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have increased every month since April, when Trump made his “Liberation Day” speech announcing the new duties. As of August, the BLS’ benchmark Consumer Price Index stood at 2.93%. September data has been delayed because of the government shutdown, now in its 13th day, and it is scheduled to be released later this month.
A separate inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve has likewise continued to climb, rising to 2.7% for August — above the central bank’s 2% target.
In August, Trump assailed an initial Goldman Sachs estimate that said consumers could bear as much as 67% of the cost of tariffs.
In a statement, White House spokesman Kush Desai said: “The President and Administration’s position has always been clear: While Americans may face a transition period from tariffs upending a broken status quo that has put America Last, the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters. Companies are already shifting and diversifying their supply chains in response to tariffs, including by onshoring production to the United States. Americans can rest assured that the Administration will continue to deliver economic relief from Joe Biden’s inflation crisis while laying the groundwork for a long-term restoration of American Greatness.”
The administration has also pointed to the billions in revenue the duties have brought in to continue to justify their existence. In September, tariff revenues totaled more than $31 billion, bringing the year-to-date haul to about $215 billion. Trump has floated various proposals for how to use the funds, including sending out rebate checks to U.S. households and subsidizing U.S. farmers and manufacturers. Last week, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt indicated the administration would use some tariff revenues to pay for Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children food subsidies that have been affected by the shutdown.
The Goldman analysts arrived at their estimate of the tariffs’ burden on consumers by comparing how much consumer prices for tariffed products have deviated from previous trends. The burden is actually less than the estimated pass-through that occurred during the trade war Trump set off during his first term in 2018. In that period, evidence suggests, foreign exporters did not bear any significant share of the tariff costs, meaning consumers were shouldering even more of a burden.
This time, exporters are bearing some cost, along with U.S. businesses, who may actually be sparing consumers even worse price increases for the moment. American companies may be waiting to see how the Supreme Court rules on tariffs, the Goldman analysts said. Businesses also might have accumulated inventory in advance of the tariffs’ setting in, allowing them to hold off on raising their retail prices more significantly. The nation’s highest court is set to hear opening arguments in the tariff case Nov. 5.
Still, the analysts estimate tariffs have added 0.44% to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. That could rise to as much as 0.6% if Trump makes good on recent threats to impose tariffs on products such as furniture and kitchen cabinets. Those were set to take effect Tuesday. In this scenario, the tariffs’ cost burden borne by consumers could rise to 70%.
The analysts’ latest estimate does not take into account Trump’s threat Friday to double the tariffs on China. On Monday, Trump administration officials sought to reassure markets that they did not seek to reignite tensions with America’s largest overseas trading partner
If those tariffs were to take effect, the impact would be significant, the analysts said.
“We are not assuming any changes to tariff rates on imports from China, but events in recent days suggest large risks,” they wrote.
