Prediction markets promised more clarity in elections. The reality is messier.

This version of Prediction Markets Kalshi Election Midterms Rcna264882 - Business and Economy | NBC News Clone was adapted by NBC News Clone to help readers digest key facts more efficiently.

As bettors turn to events exchanges to forecast and bet on elections, recent races highlight the limits of those markets to predict what voters will do.
 Recent political primary races have exposed some of the limitations of prediction markets in forecasting election outcomes. 
 Recent political primary races have exposed some of the limitations of prediction markets in forecasting election outcomes. Justine Goode / NBC News; Getty Images

As the U.S. heads toward November’s midterm elections, a growing number of investors and political observers are turning to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to gauge who might win.

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